Updated NBA Rookie of the Year Odds: Can Anyone Catch Doncic?

• Roughly 30-percent through the season a huge favorite has emerged
• Only two players are receiving any significant support
• Bettors should take advantage of Luka Doncic’s odds now before they become any shorter

---

Going into June’s NBA Draft there was some minor debate about who the top pick should be. In the end, manchild Deandre Ayton was picked ahead of the more polished Marvin Bagley III, with the ultimate wildcard, Luka Doncic, selected third. The picks were logical. Six months later they seem crazy.

We had Doncic as the favorite before the season began, but not the overwhelming chalk he has become. Doncic has been nothing short of spectacular, taking a Mavericks team most assumed would be near the bottom of the standings and making them Western Conference playoff contenders. While it is hard to imagine anyone catching him to win Rookie of the Year honors, remember we aren’t even at Christmas yet, the unofficial start of the NBA season.

Whether it be Ayton, or someone else, if you think the Doncic train can be slowed down (be it on the court or via injury), there are some juicy odds to ponder. Let’s examine the numbers and see if there is an angle worth pursuing.

2019 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds

Player	Odds to Win the 2019 NBA Rookie of the Year Award
Luka Doncic	1/2
DeAndre Ayton	3/2
Trae Young	9/2
Jaren Jackson Jr.	15/1
Marvin Bagley III	15/1
Collin Sexton	15/1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	25/1
Wendell Carter Jr.	25/1

The Favorite: Luka Doncic

The implied probability Doncic takes home the hardware is 67%. While that is a tough pill to swallow, if the voting took place right now he would be the unanimous choice or close to it. Every week his chances are getting better, and at some point soon there will be no way to bet him unless you are forking over $10 for every dollar you’ll win.

Doncic's first 20 games paint an impressive picture with averages that excite both fans and analysts. He's scoring over 19 points per game, alongside 6.5 rebounds and 4 assists. His shooting accuracy, especially from three-point range at 38%, highlights his mature shot selection. Notable performances include games against top-tier teams where his contributions were key in unexpected victories, solidifying his role as a leader in Dallas. His ability to perform under pressure, delivering in clutch moments, adds to his Rookie of the Year credentials.

On the court, Doncic has been a revelation. While he has been inconsistent at times, 18 points a game, 6.5 rebounds a contest, more than four assists a game, and 38% shooting from outside the arc is outstanding.

Better than his numbers though are his electric highlights.

Comparisons with Previous Rookie of the Year Winners

Comparing Doncic to past Rookie of the Year winners like Ben Simmons and particularly Donovan Mitchell situates him among elite company. Doncic's stats not only match but in some cases surpass these former winners' early season numbers. His contribution to the Mavericks' win column already mirrors the level of influence seen in past recipients. This comparison highlights the benchmark Doncic has set as he vies for the Rookie title, earning him not just stats-based acclaim but also respect in the league's competitive landscape.

Top Challenger: Deandre Ayton

While Luka has been the talk of the league, Ayton’s numbers are equally as terrific. However, he plays for the Suns, arguably the worst team in the league, and there have been some questions about whether there are limits to his game that will prohibit him from being a superstar.

Ayton's defense is quietly becoming a significant part of his game. Averaging a double-double with 16 points and 10 rebounds, he complements his offensive role by guarding the paint effectively. His shooting percentage of 60% reflects high efficiency, with defensive tenacity contributing to his overall impact. Although the Suns struggle in standings, Ayton's ability to alter shots and hold his ground against bigger opponents hints at his developing game, which, combined with his offensive stats, keeps him on the Rookie of the Year radar.

He is averaging 16 points and 10 boards a game while shooting 60%. Ayton has been more consistently productive than Doncic too. That said, his impact does not feel as great, and certainly has not led to victories.

The Field

Trae Young is the clear third choice, and his 16 points a game are great, but he just isn’t shooting a high enough percentage to be seriously considered.

Jackson has played very well recently, and Memphis is solidly in a playoff position. That said, his impact at this stage does not come close to Doncic.

Bagley III has helped the Kings to a much better start than many expected, and he has been solid (13 ppg, 7 rpg). However, the plan is to take it slow, and he’s hurt right now.

Explaining NBA Rookie of the Year Odds

Understanding how NBA Rookie of the Year odds work involves assessing multiple factors. These odds are primarily determined by individual performance, team success, and media narratives. A player's impact on their team's performance carries weight, as does consistency in delivering standout games. Public perception also plays a role, with media coverage influencing shifts more than just statistical achievements. As players like Doncic continue impressing, their odds shift to reflect both their current impact and potential future successes in the season.

How to Bet

Nobody likes betting on the favorite, and the odds keep shrinking, making it even less fruitful. That said, baring an injury there is no reason to believe Doncic is getting slowed down. Don’t wait another month and watch the odds go to 1/5.

The post Updated NBA Rookie of the Year Odds: Can Anyone Catch Doncic? appeared first on My Top Sportsbooks.

Original source: https://www.mytopsportsbooks.com/free-picks/nba-basketball/updated-rookie-of-the-year-odds-can-anyone-catch-doncic/

Relevant news