NFL Week 10 Predictions and Best Bets:

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  • A 2-for-3 performance last Sunday has my Locks of the Week up over $400 for the year.
  • Week 10 has a lot of big favorites, but some tasty plays nonetheless.
  • I’m going hard on the Saints in Cincinnati, for pretty obvious reasons. 

Week 9 saw a nice return on investment. The Bills and Bucs “delivered” (by being terrible), which allowed by two-team teaser to cash. The Jets and Dolphins offenses were equally bad, which made my under play in that game another winner. The only Lock that failed to hit was Seattle laying two at home to the Chargers. All credit to LA for that impressive road win.

Here’s where my account is at heading into Week 10:

  • “Locks of the Week” 2018 ROI: +$423.70 (based on $100 wagers)
  • Week 9 ROI: +$74.24

The Broncos, Ravens, Texans and Vikings are on bye in Week 10, meaning we have 14 games to choose from.

As usual, I’ve set out my predictions and best bets for every game below, but I only recommend following my Locks of the Week (see bottom of page) when it comes time to put real money down. Quality > quantity.

Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Time & Date: 5:25 PM ET, Thursday, Nov. 8th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Panthers +3.5 (-115) +155 O 52.5 (-110)
Steelers -3.5 (-105) -175 U 52.5 (-110)

Both teams are streaking. Both offenses are firing. But both teams are also leaning heavily on their ground games. Give me the under.

Score Prediction: 26-23 Steelers

Best Bet: UNDER 52.5 (-110)

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 11th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Bills +7.0 (-120) +250 O 37.0 (-105)
Jets -7.0 (EVEN) -300 U 37.0 (-115)

Josh McCown vs Nathan Peterman? Under again!

Score Prediction: 17-13 Jets

Best Bet: UNDER 37.0 (-115)

New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 11th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Patriots -7.0 (-110) -310 O 46.5 (-115)
Titans +7.0 (-110) +255 U 46.5 (-105)

This Titans defense is too solid to be laying seven at home, as bad as the offense is, as consistent as the Patriots are.

Score Prediction: 24-20 Patriots

Best Bet: Titans +7.0 (-110)

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 11th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Lions +7.0 (-115) +250 O 45.0 (-105)
Bears -7.0 (-105) -300 U 45.0 (-115)

The Lions are worse than their record suggest, sitting 29th overall in DVOA, and their offense isn’t the same without Golden Tate. The BEars have their problems on offense — specifically Mitchell Trubisky — but with Khalil Mack back, the defense will do enough to cover.

Score Prediction: 24-14 Bears

Best Bet: Bears -7.0 (-105)

New Orleans Saints vs Cincinnati Bengals

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 11th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Saints -6.0 (-110) -260 O 54.0 (-115)
Bengals +6.0 (-110) +215 U 54.0 (-105)

Cincinnati’s league-worst total defense and pass defense are going to be absolutely torched in this one. Without AJ Green, the Bengals have no hope of keeping up. Also, Marvin Lewis is a miserable 5-9-1 after a bye.

Score Prediction: 35-20 Saints

Best Bet: Saints -6.0 (-110)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 11th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Jaguars +3.0 (-115) +125 O 46.5 (-110)
Colts -3.0 (-105) -145 U 46.5 (-110)

The balance of power in the AFC South is closer to where it was circa 2014 than 2017. Andrew Luck is reasserting the Colts as a divisional contender, while the Jags are fading in the opposite direction as Blake Bortles continues to Bortle.

Score Prediction: 26-19 Colts

Best Bet: Colts -3.0 (-105)

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 11th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Falcons -5.0 (-115) -235 O 51.0 (-105)
Browns +5.0 (-105) +195 U 51.0 (-115)

The Falcons played with desperation in last week’s impressive 38-14 win at Washington. They know they have no room for error in the tight NFC Wild Card race. The Browns, meanwhile, are fading both on offense and defense, and did not look re-energized under interim HC Gregg Williams in a Week 9 loss to KC.

Score Prediction: 28-20 Falcons

Best Bet: Falcons -5.0 (-115)

Washington vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 11th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Washington +3.0 (-120) +135 O 51.5 (-115)
Buccaneers -3.0 (EVEN) -155 U 51.5 (-105)

The injuries to the offensive line are going to take away the only thing Washington does well on that side: run the ball. Their defense looked susceptible to a good passing attack last week against Atlanta, and that’s the only thing Tampa does well (on either side of the ball).

Score Prediction: 27-20 Buccaneers

Best Bet: Buccaneers -3.0 (EVEN)

Arizona Cardinals vs Kansas City Chiefs

Time & Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 11th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Cardinals +17.0 (-115) OFF O 49.5 (-110)
Chiefs -17.0 (-105) OFF U 49.5 (-110)

Oy. That’s a big number. The combination of the spread and total are predicting about a 33-16 final score. Exactly one KC game has finished under 50 points this year: 30-14 W vs Jacksonville. Exactly one Arizona game has finished over 50 points this year: 45-10 L vs Denver.

The more likely scenario here is that KC gets out to a big lead and then takes its foot off the gas. Either that or the Arizona defense proves saltier than Vegas is predicting.

Score Prediction: 30-14 Chiefs

Best Bet: UNDER 49.5 (-110)

LA Chargers vs Oakland Raiders

Time & Date: 1:05 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 11th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Chargers -10.5 (-105) -550 O 49.5 (-105)
Raiders +10.5 (-115) +375 U 49.5 (-115)

This Raiders team has given up on the season, and don’t expect much of a home-field advantage given how sour the fanbase is likely to be after last week’s 34-3 drubbing to Bay Area rival San Francisco. The Chargers have won five straight and are just as good on the road as at home.

Score Prediction: 28-16 Chargers

Best Bet: Chargers -10.5 (-105)

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers

Time & Date: 1:25 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 11th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Dolphins +10.0 (-110) +375 O 47.5 (-105)
Packers -10.0 (-110) -550 U 47.5 (-115)

This Miami team is bad on the road. They’ve lost three in a row away from home by an average of 20 points per game. They’ve also given up at least 28 points to the last three non-Jets teams they’ve faced. The offense was abysmal against the middling Jets defense last week, totalling 168 yards! That’s the Brock Osweiler we know and love. The only reason they came away with a 13-6 win was because Sam Darnold threw four picks.

For all their issues this season, the Packers are still undefeated at home and scoring 27 points per game at Lambeau. Put another double-digit favorite on the docket.

Score Prediction: 27-13 Packers

Best Bet: Packers -10.0 (-110)

Seattle Seahawks vs LA Rams

Time & Date: 1:25 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 11th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Seahawks +10.0 (-125) +350 O 50.5 (-110)
Rams -10.0 (+105) -500 U 50.5 (-110)

The Rams’ defense is not good enough to be laying 10 points to a Seattle team that can run the ball, churn clock, and shorten the game. LA is 24th in DVOA against the run.

Score Prediction: 28-24 Rams

Best Bet: Seahawks +10.0 (-125)

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

Time & Date: 1:25 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 11th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Cowboys +7.0 (-105) +270 O 43.0 (-115)
Eagles -7.0 (-115) -340 U 43.0 (-105)

This one-dimensional Cowboys offense may actually find some success against an Eagles D that’s 23rd in DVOA against the run. But with Sean Lee out, Dallas is going to have a hard time slowing Philadelphia, which now has a litany of slot weapons with Golden Tate in the mix.

Score Prediction: 26-17

Best Bet: Eagles -7.0 (-115)

New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers

Time & Date: 5:15 PM ET, Monday, Nov. 12th

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Giants +3.0 (-115) +130 O 44.0 (-110)
49ers -3.0 (-105) -150 U 44.0 (-110)

Let’s just go ahead and give Nick Mullens the benefit of the doubt. The Giants D is better than Oakland’s but not by that much. New York is 26th in defensive DVOA; Oakland is 31st.

San Francisco’s pass rush was incredibly disruptive last week, as well, and that’s enough for me to lay the points with a 49ers team that’s long been a great prime-time bet.

Score Prediction: 24-17 49ers

Best Bet: 49ers -3.0 (-105)

 

Locks of the Week

  • 4-team, 10-point teaser (+110): Chargers (-0.5), Packers (PK), Rams (PK), Saints (+4)
  • Saints -6.0 (-110)
  • Bills vs Jets UNDER 37.0 (-115)

The post NFL Week 10 Predictions and Best Bets: appeared first on My Top Sportsbooks.

Original source: https://www.mytopsportsbooks.com/free-picks/nfl-football/nfl-week-10-predictions-and-best-bets/

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