What are the most important stats to look at when betting on NFL?

If you want to be a winning NFL bettor, you need all the information you can get about the game at stake. In this article we highlight the 7 Key NFL betting stats you should observe before placing your wagers.

Statistics for receivers, running backs, and quarterbacks may be enough for average bettors, but they represent only a small fraction of what’s happening on the field.

If you want to know more, you have to start digging a little deeper and gather more information to base your decisions on.

Offshore betting sites spend a lot of resources evaluating games and setting up lines, and if you want to call yourself a winner, you will have to spend just as much, if not more, time researching everything.

To help you out, below are some of the most key NFL betting stats bettors look at before placing their bets on an NFL game.

Many of these key NFL betting stats are simple, but some of them may be a little difficult to find.

Consider keeping records of all games in a season to make better predictions.

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Key NFL betting Stats to look for

Once you keep an eye on these key NFL betting stats for two or three weeks, you will start noticing trends and make more accurate predictions game after game.

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Team Quality

This is perhaps the most obvious stat you need to look at when betting on NFL games, but it can be a decisive factor when it comes to who has more chances of winning the game.

When you look at team quality, it’s not enough to just determine which team is better. You need to focus on which team is the strongest overall.

Don’t base your decision on the team’s offensive line or how many star names are out of the field. Even though the media spends a lot of time discussing offensive moves, defense is just as, if not more important.

In fact, every single player on the NFL football field has a very important role to play in the game, so you have to consider each of them before placing your bet.

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Strength of Schedule

Consider the strength of the schedule as it reflects the quality of opponents a team has faced or will face throughout the season.

Teams that have played against top-tier opponents might be better equipped for challenging games due to experience, even if their record isn't perfect.

Alternatively, a team with a softer schedule may have inflated statistics, misleading in predicting future performance.

Analyze how these factors can skew perceptions of team quality and potential game outcomes.

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Penalty Yards

Penalty yards can drastically impact the flow and outcome of a game, making them a valuable stat for bettors to consider.

High penalty counts can disrupt offensive momentum and provide free yards to the opponent.

When betting, keep track of teams that consistently incur penalties, especially in key game moments.

Examining a team's discipline through this lens can forecast likely outcomes, as disciplined teams tend to commit fewer errors that can cost them the game.

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Team Style

If team quality tells you how strong a team is overall, a team’s playstyle will help you determine which of the two teams playing has a more solid chance of winning the game.

If one team has a more aggressive style and their opponents are known not to respond well to a strong offensive, then you can use that to your advantage when placing bets.

Team style also helps when it comes to predicting how many points a team will win by or how many points will be scored throughout a single game.

Take into consideration how the coach sets up the team as well. Is he allowing them to express themselves more on the field, or does he impose a specific set of actions?

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Motivation

Bettors often dismiss motivation, but it can be a very important psychological factor that can influence the course of a game. A team with a stronger motivation and more factors at stake will often be more determined to win.

Here are some aspects to keep in mind when factoring motivation:

• Previous games: a series of big wins or losses can affect a team’s morale
• Schedule: a full schedule may make players tired, and their motivation can suffer
• Previous results: this can either lift or drop a team’s morale
• Standings: what else could affect players’ motivation more?

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Injuries

Try to stay up to date with injury reports throughout the entire season if you want to make accurate NFL predictions. Injuries can have a detrimental effect on a team’s performance, especially when a key player needs to be replaced, so pay close attention to these aspects.

However, make sure you are not overreacting when it comes to injuries, or else it can work against you. One of the most common mistakes you can make is betting against a team that’s missing an important player, without taking into consideration other aspects.

The best online sportsbooks will usually factor in the loss, so take a look at the lines they are offering beforehand.

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Special Teams Performance

Special teams play an important role in field positioning and can direct game momentum.

Effective kick return and punt return units can create scoring opportunities from favorable starting positions on the field.

Consider the influence of both the return game and coverage unit performances when analyzing potential betting leads.

Poor special teams play can negate strong performances elsewhere, as field position changes impact scoring potential and game strategy.

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Playing conditions

Some teams can perform well regardless of the circumstances, but others need favorable conditions in order to win. Do your research before any football game and factor in every aspect you find important.

When it comes to playing conditions, take a good look at the surface, crowd, and, most importantly, weather, because they can all make a difference. In a huge game between two big rivals, for example, a cheering home crowd can make all the difference in the world.

Pay attention to weather reports as well because even though they may not always be 100% accurate, they can give you an idea of what’s happening.

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Team turnovers

Turnovers can either win or lose a game, meaning they are a statistic you need to study very carefully. Keep in mind that turnovers are a team statistic, so take into consideration every player on the field. For example, a quarterback may throw the ball just right, but if a receiver does not run the right route, an interception can happen and turn the odds around.

Track turnovers made by both the offense and the defense in each team, but make sure to also factor in the overall plus-or-minus numbers for each of them. You will be surprised to see how much better some teams are at turnovers and how it can influence the course of the game.

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Red Zone Efficiency

Red zone efficiency is a key stat that reflects a team's ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities inside the opponent's 20-yard line.

Teams with high success rates in this area tend to score more touchdowns rather than settling for field goals.

This can be decisive in determining the point differential expected in a game, influencing the overall betting line.

Pay attention to both the offensive and defensive red zone efficiency, as stopping opponents from scoring in these situations can be just as impactful.

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Time of possession

Time of possession is a very important stat to consider, but make sure you don’t base your decision solely on this. Use it in combination with other stats to make more accurate betting decisions.

If a team has a high-powered passing attack, then it may have a lower time of possession than, for example, a team with a strong ground game, but it does not mean the first team is less good.

Time of possession helps you evaluate a team’s defenses for the upcoming games, as defenses need to spend more time on the field, which can tire them and leave them prone to mistakes in the following games.

Look at the time of possession in certain moments of the games as well, because a poor team tends to keep the ball more during the final minutes of a game, without necessarily meaning they have a real chance to win.

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Third-Down Conversions

Analyzing third-down conversions can provide significant insights when betting on NFL games.

Teams that excel in third-down efficiency tend to maintain control over the game's tempo.

This keeps the drive alive, allowing a team to score or manage the clock better.

A high conversion rate often translates to better ball management, which is key for winning close contests.

When evaluating this stat, consider the opponents faced, as defenses vary greatly in their ability to stop third-down attempts.

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