2020 Kentucky Derby Preview
Who is going to win the 2020 Kentucky Derby to be run on September 5? Why?
Held in Louisville, Kentucky, the 2020 Kentucky Derby is one of the three legs of the American Triple Crown, open to three-year-old Thoroughbreds.
On September 5, fans will be able to enjoy the 146th installment of the popular horse race; normally, the Kentucky Derby takes place on the first Saturday in May but, like all other sports events, it had to be postponed because of COVID-19.
Even if horses are not affected by COVID-19, Louisville has seen a considerable increase in the number of active cases, and the race will take place without spectators.
After much anticipation, the big day is almost here and the buzz has never been greater. If you’re a fan of horse racing betting, the 2020 Kentucky Derby should be on your betting radar too, and you’re probably in equal parts excited and curious.
The drama leading up to the event is part of the beauty of the Kentucky Derby and, of course, this year couldn’t be an exception.
Last year, favorite Omaha Beach scratched from the Derby soon after the draw. This year, it was Art Collector (who had won his last five races and was the projected second choice) dropping out of the race because of a minor foot ailment suffered during training on August 31.
Normally, the injury shouldn’t have posed a problem, but Kentucky Derby rules don’t allow horses to be treated with anti-inflammatory medication leading up to the event.
The 2020 edition will have a new starting gate with 20 stalls, but there will only be 18 starters (slots 1 and 20 will be empty).
The fact that the unlucky 17 slot went to Tiz The Law, who also happens to be the favorite, will also make things a lot more interesting.
Kentucky Derby Post Positions 2020
Here are the post positions for the Kentucky Derby, revealed after the draw which took place on Tuesday, at 11 am:
- Finnick the Fierce (Trainer: Rey Hernandez, Jockey: Martin Garcia)
- Max Player (Trainer: Steve Asmussen, Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.)
- Enforceable (Trainer: Peter Eurton, Jockey: Julien Leparoux)
- Storm the Court (Trainer: Peter Eurton, Jockey: Julien Leparoux)
- Major Fed (Trainer: Greg Foley, Jockey: James Graham)
- King Guillermo (Trainer: Juan Carlos Avila, Jockey: Samy Camacho)
- Money Moves (Trainer: Todd Pletcher, Jockey: Javier Castellano)
- South Bend (Trainer: William I. Mott, Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione)
- Big News (Trainer: Bret Calhoun, Jockey: Gabriel Sáez)
- Thousand Words (Trainer: Bob Baffert, Jockey: Florent Geroux)
- Necker Island (Trainer: Chris Hartmann, Jockey: Miguel Mena)
- Sole Volante (Trainer: Patrick Biancone, Jockey: Luca Panici)
- Attachment Rate (Trainer: Dale Romans, Jockey: Joe Talamo)
- Winning Impression (Trainer: Dallas Stewart, Jockey: Joe Rocco Jr.)
- Ny Traffic (Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr., Jockey: Paco Lopez)
- Honor A. P. (Trainer: John Shirreffs, Jockey: Mike Smith)
- Tiz the Law (Trainer: Barclay Tagg, Jockey: Manny Franco)
- Authentic (Trainer: Bob Baffert, Jockey: John Velazquez)
The length of the track is 1 ¼ miles (10 furlongs), the surface will be dirt, and Secretariat holds the record, with 1:59.40 completion time in 1973.
Who will win the 2020 Kentucky Derby?
After an effortless victory at the Belmont Stakes in June and Travers Stakes in August, this year’s victory is likely to go to Tiz the Law, who’s headed for a Triple Crown.
His morning line odds sat at 3-5, but here’s where things get interesting:
So, if Tiz the Law maintains his momentum and wins, 2020 will go down in history.
Asked about the starting position, trainer Barclay Tagg said that’s not worried in the slightest and that position #17 is much more favorable on this new track.
He also praised the horse for never doing anything wrong or being nervous.
Over the years, Tiz the Law has started from tougher post positions and managed to overcome any challenge that was thrown at him, so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he became the first horse ever to win the Kentucky Derby from spot 17.
After Tiz the Law, the second favorite is Honor A.P. (morning line odds 5-1), followed by Authentic (morning line odds 8-1).
Authentic may be quite a nice surprise, because he won the Santa Anita Derby in June and he has fresh legs after skipping Belmont.
Apart from Honor A.P. and Authentic, all other horses are longshots compared to Tiz the Law, so most bettors are focused on these three.
Which position has produced the most winners at the Kentucky Derby?
If we look at the statistics, it seems that spot #5 is the luckiest, with ten winners in 145 years.
Next, we have spot #10, with nine winners.
At the opposite end there’s #1 (the last horse to win the race from #1 was Ferdinand 33 years ago), and, of course, #17, but that could be about to change if the predictions are true and Tiz the Law wins.
The odds are also in favor of trainer Barclay Tagg, who won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness with Funny Cide 17 years ago.
Does longshot Max Player stand a chance?
While most experts agree on Tiz the Law’s status as favorite, it’s the longshots that generated the most debate.
For example, many believe that Authentic, who in theory is the third favorite, is not yet mature enough and too easily distracted.
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