NFL Public betting – What it is and the best Strategy to employ

NFL public betting

When you start to get more invested in the online NFL betting world, the opportunity to win real money is so enticing that you’ll want to find solid strategies.

One well-known strategy is known as NFL public betting, or “fading the public”, which is when you bet against what the majority of other bettors are for.

The main theory behind this betting strategy is that public opinions are often swayed by media and other factors, causing their bets to be wrong.

 In response, you could potentially win a bet by going against the grain.  

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If you’d like to learn more about NFL public betting, keep reading.

We’ll discuss the public consensus, money percentages, where to find NFL consensus picks, and the pros and cons of betting against the public for NFL lines.

Stick around to the end to get answers to frequently asked questions!

What Is the NFL Public Consensus?

When it comes to NFL betting, the “consensus” refers to what a particular NFL line is looking like in terms of how many bettors are wagering on one side vs. the other.

For example, if there is an NFL money line set for the Chargers vs. the Chiefs, the consensus would give details regarding:

  • % of bettors wagering on the favorite
  • % of bettors wagering on the underdog

If you end up betting with the public, you’d be betting on the team the majority of the consensus are betting on to win.

But if you bet against the public, you’d bet against the team that the majority of the consensus is betting on to win.

Some sports bettors believe that always or frequently betting with the public consensus is a good way to increase your likelihood of winning bets.

But other bettors see more merit in the strategy of betting against the public since some statistics show that the majority of bettors (public) are wrong a lot of the time.


NFL Public Betting ; Money Percentages

If you hear bettors referring to a strategy called “public betting”, they’re discussing the strategy of betting against the public.

This is sometimes also called “fading the public”.

It essentially means that you will bet against whatever outcome the majority of the public are set to bet on.

You can use money percentages to understand how the game line is moving and base your betting strategy on that.


How Public Betting Works

To bet with the public in NFL betting, simply identify the team that most people are betting on to win, and put your money on them. And vice versa for betting against the public – put your money on the team that the minority is betting on.


What Are Money Percentages?

Money percentages are a bit complicated, but you can understand them basically as the percentage of dollar amounts on a single side of a game line.

For example, let’s say that 65% of the public are set to bet on the Chargers and 35% are set to bet on the Chiefs.

This may make it seem as though it would be good to bet on the Chargers.

But you also have to consider how much money is involved in each of those percentages.

Because if that 65% consists of lots of smaller wagers, it may not be great to bet with the public.

Furthermore, if that 35% consists of lots of large wagers, you have even more reason to consider betting against the public and with that 35% of bettors.


Should the NFL Consensus Change Your Betting Decision?

There is a lot of debate surrounding the effectiveness of following consensus picks and money percentages.

The thing about online gambling is that there is never a 100% guarantee that you will win in any scenario.

So, you need to consider that there might be multiple strategies that could work for you, on a case by case basis.

Analyze the game line you want to bet on by following the line movement.

Does it seem like the percentages are changing? Get some expert opinion on the consensus.

What are sports betting experts saying about this particular wager online?

And finally, think about looking for sharp money to influence your betting decision as well.

Together, these factors can help you get a better idea as to whether the consensus should even have a say in how you use your money.


Should I Bet With or Against the Public?

Many NFL bettors want to know whether it behooves them to bet with or against the public consensus.

Your decision should be based on a variety of factors, including but not limited to:

  • The money percentages – which team is garnering the largest wagers?
  • The public picks – which team is garnering the highest amount of wagers?
  • Line movement – how are the odds and the line shifting leading up to the game?
  • Sharp picks – highly successful and analytical sharp bettors will drop large amounts of money on opportunities that they see potential in

Ultimately, it’s up to each individual player to decide what side to land on, as there is a level of risk in each choice.


Where to Find the NFL Consensus Picks

There are plenty of online and media-based outlets where you can find the latest updated NFL consensus picks.

We recommend looking at the following resources to stay up to date on which way the public is leaning for any given NFL game:

  • Sports betting blogs
  • Sports betting mobile applications
  • Online sportsbooks and their associated blogs
  • Sports news outlets such as ESPN, CBS, etc.

These resources often have pages dedicated to NFL consensus information, as well as other consensus picks for different professional leagues.


Pros and Cons

When deciding if you should start monitoring the NFL public consensus to inform your NFL betting decisions, consider the following downsides and advantages.

Remember that statistics and data are often a better way to gauge an outcome when it comes to sportsbook lines.

Pros

Depending on surrounding circumstances, there are certain pros to public betting, including:

  • You stay more up to date with the odds and line movement
  • You start paying more attention to trends in NFL betting and statistics
  • You sometimes have a greater chance of winning when you fade the public

Cons

Note that there are also some potential downsides to public betting on the NFL when compared to other strategies:

  • It’s not a foolproof strategy when it comes to betting on the lines
  • The sportsbooks still often have the advantage
  • The public consensus doesn’t always give a clear idea of how teams/players will perform
  • Some online sportsbooks monitor players and don’t allow you to fade the public on every wager
  • There isn’t much science behind constantly betting against the public
  • Sportsbooks already know that customers will use this strategy

Conclusion

Have you ever wondered what NFL public betting is and how you can get involved in this sports betting strategy online?

NFL bettors frequently bet with the majority or the “consensus” on a certain team.

You can either bet against the public or with it, depending on your particular strategy that day.

Before you adopt this strategy, consider the pros and cons, as well as other strategies you can employ to get a leg up in NFL betting.

Remember that there are lots of other ways to advance at online sportsbooks, including odds boosts, promotions, and much more.


FAQs

Is it better to bet against the public?

It’s a good plan to bet against the public when it comes to popular sports and sports events.

Because it’s so common for online sports bettors to lose their bets, you want to side opposite of that majority (the public).

The public tends to base their wager on what the sports media is telling them about teams, and sometimes, you’re better off to avoid that trap.

What is public in sports betting?

In sports betting, (the public) refers to the majority of sports bettors wagering on an event.

(Public) can also be used to refer to the particular outcome that the majority of bettors wager their money on.

Can you make money fading the public?

When you (fade) the public, or bet against the public, you have an opportunity to make real money at sportsbooks that offer real money wagering opportunities.

Although it’s not a surefire way to earn a payout, it’s a solid strategy for popular sports betting events.


What do sharp bettors look for?

Sharp bettors – those who are experienced in earning real money payouts from sports betting – rely on strategies involving statistics and analyses.

Rather than choosing specific teams or players to put their money on, they look for an (edge) opportunity.

This means they only wager when they think they see a potential to have an advantage over the oddsmakers.

How do you spot a sharp money?

Some bettors try to identify when a (sharp) bettor is wagering and what outcome they’re wagering on.

Because of the sharp success rate, bettors believe they can hop on the bandwagon and find their own success.

To spot (sharp money), you should monitor line movement (freeze, reverse, steam).


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