- The NBA All-Star Game is Sunday in Charlotte
- Golden State remains a huge favorite to win a third straight title
- If you can pick the Eastern Conference Champion there is value to be had
If you thought at the start of the NBA season the Golden State Warriors were unbeatable, which their future odds reflected, it doesn’t mean they were the best bet. In fact, we suggested trying a longshot at that point. If you got the Bucks at 66/1, and now they are 10/1, at very least you locked in some value.
While crazy prices for contenders no longer exist, there are still a couple bets were pondering. With a few days off around the All-Star Break, this is a good time to refresh and consider who will be hot down the stretch and someone you want a few dollars on come playoff time.
Let’s take a look at the updated odds and see where we find a squad or two worth backing. All odds are available from SportsBetting.ag.
2019 NBA Championship Odds
|Team||Odds to Win the 2019 NBA Championship (02/12/19)|
|Golden State Warriors||-200|
|Los Angeles Lakers||+2000|
|Oklahoma City Thunder||+2500|
|San Antonio Spurs||+6600|
|Portland Trail Blazers||+10000|
|Los Angeles Clippers||+15000|
|New Orleans Pelicans||+15000|
|New York Knicks||+100000|
Why Bet Against the Warriors?
The reason you should bet against the Warriors is simple. While they are the best team, the best team doesn’t always win. The odds indicate they are going to take the title two-thirds of the time. Data suggests the actual number is just over half.
There is no arguing their unbelievable roster, ability to do a million things, and pedigree. That said, you are paying a penalty for betting on the established chalk, and there is good news that they are 1/2. It creates value elsewhere.
Who is the Beast of the East?
The way to find value is picking the Eastern Conference winner. Nobody is less than 10/1, at least five squads have legitimate shots, and if you get lucky, Houston or Oklahoma City or somebody out west will do the dirty work and at very least muddy up the Warriors, and hopefully knock them out. If not, you get your shot at the champs.
We loved the Bucks at monster odds, but an argument can still be made for them at the current price. They would have home court advantage against Golden State or anybody else in the Finals, and their league leading record is no fluke. They have the best point differential too, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is every bit the star that Aaron Rodgers is in Wisconsin these days.
That said, the Celtics have seen their odds more than double from 6/1 to 14/1 for what reason? They haven’t been amazing through 50 or 60 games? Who cares? LeBron has turned it on come playoff time over and over again. The Celtics are a veteran star-studded team with one of the best coaches in the NBA. They won in Philadelphia without Kyrie Irving on Tuesday, and Gordon Hayward is starting to play great ball. We think Boston will pass Indiana, finish among the top three, have a fairly easy first round match-up, and be a very very tough out when the money is on the line. That presents significant value.
Denver is a Huge Longshot
Nobody is paying a lot of attention to the teams in the West that aren’t Golden State or Houston. The Warriors have All-Stars at every position, and James Harden is must-watch television. That said, it is possible that Denver is the second best team.
Sure, the last road trip didn’t go great, but the Nuggets are 40/1 and what if Isaiah Thomas is a difference maker? Nikola Jokic is amazing and has led Denver to the second best mark in the West thus far. They have as good a shot as anyone out West at taking down the Warriors, and the odds are sizeable
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