When NFL Bettors Need To Take The Moneyline Instead of Spread

15/09/2019 | Categories: NFL Betting | Published by: offshoresports

Updated: May 27, 2023

Taking an underdog on the spread in the NFL is very common but bettors should be aware of another profitable angle when dogs have spreads of 3 points or less.

Last season, underdogs with a closing line of 3 or lower covered the spread in 54 of 98 games, or 58.7 percent of the time. But the real money was made on the moneyline as underdogs won outright in that spot 50 percent of the time (48 wins).

If you had bet $100 on every underdog moneyline with a spread of 3 points or less last season, you’d have profited $1,147.18.

See below for 2018 regular-season results:

Year	SU Overall	ATS Overall	O/U Overall
2018	48-48-2 (50.0%)	54-38-6 (58.7%)	49-49 (50.0%)

In Week 1 of the 2019 season, there were six games with spreads that closed at 3 points or lower and underdogs finished 4-1-1 SU and 5-1 ATS. For the $100 bettors, you’d be up to $400.24 in profit just off of the opening week.

For Week 2, the betting lines that Odds Shark is monitoring have eight teams with plus spreads of 3 points or less: Vikings, 49ers, Lions, Colts, Giants, Broncos, Saints and Falcons.

What About Spreads of 6 or Less?

After running the report in Odds Shark’s database for 3 points, it got me thinking whether there’s another magic number that could be profitable, so I ran the numbers for spreads of 6 points or less and it yielded some less than positive results.

Last season, underdogs of a closing line of 6 or lower covered the spread in 90 of 173 games, or 54.5 percent of the time. Also, it was still profitable to take each team’s moneyline in that spot despite them finishing with a less than stellar record of 72-98-3 SU in 173 games. That yielded a $572.18 profit.

See below for those 2018 regular-season results:

Year	SU Overall	ATS Overall	O/U Overall
2018	72-98-3 (42.4%)	90-75-8 (54.5%)	80-93 (46.2%)

For Week 2, there are 11 games with spreads currently at 6 points or less. Betting is always a long-term grind and I’d always tell bettors the one caveat when implementing this strategy is to have a lot of bankroll and understand that not all dogs are created equal.

Stick to the rule of three for now.