Odds to Win the AFC East Division 2019
For years, the New England Patriots have been a virtual lock to win the NFL's AFC East division. However, with losses in three of their last five games, their grip on the 2019 division crown may be slipping but according to oddsmakers, it would take a miracle for the Buffalo Bills to take it away from them.
That’s because online sportsbook Bovada still has the Patriots at -1200 odds to win the AFC East for the 17th time in 18 years even though they only have a one-game lead (with a game in hand) over their rivals from upstate New York, the Bills, who are +550.
Prior to the 2019 season starting, the Patriots were -500 to win the AFC East and saw their odds spike to as high as -2500 after Week 8 when they were undefeated and mowing down the competition.
The Pats currently sit at 10-3 SU through 13 games while the Bills are 9-4 SU with one of those four losses vs New England.
How The Bills Can Pull Off The Upset
It’s an uphill battle for the Buffalo Bills to win the AFC East divisional crown but it’s not impossible. It really comes down to the Bills winning on Sunday Night Football vs the Pittsburgh Steelers. They’re currently 2-point underdogs for that Week 15 matchup and sportsbooks are expecting a defensive dogfight between these squads with the total hovering around 37 points.
Winning vs the Steelers isn’t inconceivable considering Pittsburgh’s offense hasn’t done much with its rookie quarterbacks and they will likely be without RB James Connor and their top WR, Juju Smith-Schuster. If the Bills control the clock and play smart defense, they should win that game.
That leads to the all-important Week 16 matchup in New England that will essentially decide the division crown. The Patriots should have no trouble getting past the Bengals in Week 15 and both the Bills and Patriots have walkover matchups in the season finale vs the Dolphins and Jets, respectively.
Back to the Week 16 AFC East matchup. Things have changed significantly for both teams since they faced each other in Week 4. Specifically, on the offensive end as the Patriots have regressed on that side of the ball while the Bills have shown they can put points on the board thanks to the progression of QB Josh Allen.
Allen’s passing stats may not jump out at you but after throwing three interceptions vs the Pats in Week 4, he’s only thrown two picks in the nine games following the 16-10 loss. He still can move the chains with his legs as evidenced by his eight rushing touchdowns this season.
Why the Patriots Are Vulnerable
The New England Patriots are clearly susceptible to a letdown right now and bettors like myself have written this team off at least three or four times this decade only to be proven to be an idiot as they win the Super Bowl. But the offensive numbers, and most importantly, the eye test have shown that the Pats are not playing up to their standard.
Over their last five games, they’re averaging a measly 17.6 points per game and Tom Brady has only had one game where he completed better than 60 percent of his pass attempts. He looks his age now and can’t seem to rally the troops and stage the comebacks like in years past. The collection of the Pats’ skill players is below-average and it can’t just be assumed Brady will resume GOAT status when the Patriots host the Bills in Week 16.
I think oddsmakers are overvaluing history with the Pats currently at -1200 to win the AFC East and based on how hard the Bills played the Patriots in Week 4, get the Bills at +550 to win the division NOW.
Here are the AFC East divisional odds going into Week 15:
|New England Patriots||-1200|
Odds as of December 9 at Bovada
Understanding Odds to Win the AFC
If you look at the above table you’ll see how the odds are displayed at the sportsbook. In this case the Patriots are the clear favorite because of the minus sign (-). The other teams are the underdogs. You can tell this because of the plus sign (+). This is universal across all betting sites.
Let’s say you’re on board with New England and believe they have the best chances of winning the AFC east. If you were to lay down $100, you’d get a payout of $104 – you get your $100 back along with your winnings of $4.
On the other hand, that same $100 on the Dolphins would give you a payout of $100,100 – your original $100 is returned along with your winnings of $100,000. Bets on underdogs are riskier which is why you get a bigger reward. Yet, these teams have unfavorable odds for a reason and you shouldn’t bet on them blindly hoping to make some major coin.
Our Odds Calculator will show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount bet.
What is an NFL Futures Bet?
To wager on AFC East odds, you’d be making a futures bet. This is a bet made on events that are yet to happen. Technically, all sports betting is made on events that take place in time. However, a bet like this could be made weeks or even months in advance. NFL divisional odds are available as early as the preseason and you can bet on them at any moment before the season ends.
If you see odds you like, you should take them early. Oddsmaker’s move the odds as players succumb to injuries, coaches are fired and teams surge in the standings.
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