NFL Free Pick from Linebacker: Seahawks vs 49ers
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Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers (SF -6, O/U 47)
Kyle Shanahan and the undefeated 49ers will look to extend their lead in the NFC West with a win over the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football. The Seahawks are still nipping at San Francisco’s heels despite its perfect record, as Russell Wilson has led his team to a 7-2 record thus far, including 4-0 on the road. He’ll look to extend Seattle’s perfect road record, while Jimmy Garoppolo will attempt to retain the 49ers’ perfect record overall.
San Francisco is currently listed as a 6-point home favorite, but our model believes it’ll be a closer game than the spread indicates. Our model projects a 24.7 – 22.1 final score in favor of the 49ers, giving us a solid edge on Wilson and the Seahawks. We suggest a $54 wager on SEA +6 for an average $100 bettor.
The Linebacker’s model is 76-37 ATS (67.2%) for +20.24 units and 70-53 (56.9%) on OVER/UNDERs for +22.70 units through nine weeks of NFL, producing a profit of $4,294. Head over to thelinebacker.com to sign up for a free trial and get access to EVERY NFL Week 10 prediction. Why will Seattle cover the spread?
Russell Wilson has had an MVP-caliber season up to this point. His 8.5 yards per attempt ranks fifth among all NFL quarterbacks, and his 118.2 passer rating is tops at the position. San Francisco has had great success against the pass this season but has faced some butter-soft opposing passing attacks. Five of the eight opponents the Niners have played rank in the bottom 10 in yards per pass attempt, seven are 15th or worse, and the Rams are the only opponent inside the top 15 (11th). Wilson will surely be their toughest test of the season.
The 49ers secondary has thrived on picking off opponent QBs. Their 10 interceptions are fourth-most in the league. Wilson should avoid this pitfall, as he’s thrown a league-low one INT all season.
Kyle Shanahan’s offense has excelled at converting third downs this season. Their 48.62 percent success rate on third down is third-best in the league. While Seattle’s defense has struggled overall thus far, the third-down defense has been a strength. The Seahawks’ 34.65 percent success rate allowed to opponents is eighth-best in the NFL, and should help stall some drives against the 49ers.
Seattle’s rushing attack has the advantage against a relatively weak 49er run defense, which just lost its best linebacker in Kwon Alexander for the season due to a torn pectoral. Even with Alexander active, San Francisco had surrendered 4.7 yards per carry on the season (22nd) and 5.7 yards per carry in its last three games (second-worst during that span). Seattle runs the ball on 46.4 percent of offensive plays (sixth-most) and has averaged a solid 4.3 yards per carry (13th).
How to bet the total in Seahawks vs 49ers:
The Linebacker projects a final score of 24.7 – 22.1 in favor of the 49ers. With 46.8 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 47, we have no suggested wager on the total in this one.
Need-to-know stats for Seahawks vs 49ers:
18 rushes, 77.8 yards, 0.7 TDs, 3 catches, 22.0 yards, 0.09 TDs – Chris Carson has been the bell-cow back in Pete Carroll’s run-heavy offense, and we expect him to get plenty of work Monday night against the 49ers. We’re projecting Carson to handle the rock at least 20 times in this matchup, with a great chance at clearing 100 all-purpose yards (projected 99.8). His total yardage and 0.7 rushing touchdown projection make him an outstanding fantasy play, so don’t get cute against what is perceived as a stout 49ers defense.
16 rushes, 81.2 yards, 0.7 TDs & 2 catches, 17.8 yards (Tevin Coleman); 10 rushes, 52.6 yards, 0.3 TDs & 1 catch, 10.3 yards (Matt Breida) – The 49ers have implemented a two-headed attack in the backfield now that both Coleman and Breida are healthy. Coleman has assumed 1A duties to Breida’s 1B, and we expect that trend to continue against Seattle. Coleman projects for 99 total yards on 18 touches, while Breida falls well behind him at 62.9 total yards. The former Falcon also has a better shot at reaching the end zone according to our projections, as he averaged 0.7 rushing TDs in our simulations compared to Breida’s 0.3. Both should get plenty of looks in the league’s run-heaviest offense, but we project Coleman to have the more successful outing.
5 catches, 63.1 yards, 0.33 TDs – George Kittle remains Jimmy G’s top target despite the arrival of Emmanuel Sanders. Kittle’s 57 targets and 541 receiving yards are by far the most on the team, nearly doubling the next-closest 49er in both categories (Deebo Samuel with 32 targets and 227 receiving yards). Despite Kittle being labeled a tight end, he’s still the most explosive pass catcher on the Niners. His seven receptions of 20-plus yards are four more than the next-closest teammate. He should have no issue getting open against Seattle, which has allowed the third-most yards and eighth-most receptions and TDs to opposing tight ends this season.
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