With the first week of NFL preseason action almost complete and the start of the 2019 NFL regular season a month away, now is a great time for some expert betting analysis highlighting five mind-bending trends that all NFL bettors need to know before the start of the regular season. With that said, let’s get started.
NFC Betting Favorites to Win Super Bowl LIV
Los Angeles Rams
- Super Bowl LIV Odds: +1200
You might not know it, but a year ago, the Los Angeles Rams (7-8-1 ATS) were favored in every single game they played until the NFC Championship game and the ensuing Super Bowl. Not only that, but the high-powered Rams were also favored by at least 6.5 points in each of their first eight games. Los Angeles was also favored by a touchdown or more in 12 of their 16 regular season contest and the Rams compiled a fine, 6-5-1 mark in those contests.
However, let it also be know that L.A. went an awful 1-5-1 ATS against teams that made the playoffs last season and that means when the Rams play a quality playoff-caliber opponent in 2019, their foe that week is usually the right way to go.
New Orleans Saints
- Super Bowl LIV Odds: +900
Get your Cajun cooking NFL betting faithful! The New Orleans Saints (10-6 ATS) might have failed to cover the chalk in each of their last two home games as a touchdown or less favorite a year ago, but the Saints have also gone a bankroll-boosting 7-3 ATS in their last 10 such contests, making Drew Brees and company a high percentage bet to cover the chalk when they’re at home and favored by seven or less.
Not only that, but New Orleans has also won four straight and seven of eight on the road as a favorite of a touchdown or less while going an impressive 6-2 ATS on the road during the span.
- Super Bowl LIV Odds: +1300
Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles (7-9 ATS) will be looking to get back in the Super Bowl mix in 2019, but let it be known that the Birds have gone an awful 1-4-1 ATS in their last half-dozen games as a home favorite of a touchdown or less. Ironically however, Philadelphia is also 5-3 ATS in their last eight road dates as a favorite of a touchdown or less.
Oh, and if the Eagles make the playoffs, you should know they’ve gone a near-perfect 4-1 SU and a pristine 5-0 ATS in their last five postseason games as an underdog, including three straight times on the road.
- Super Bowl LIV Odds: +1600
Not only did the Bears (12-4 ATS) win a dozen games last season to claim the NFC North division title, but Chicago also recorded the best ATS mark in the league a year ago. Not only that, but the Bears have been a virtual lock when they’re playing at home and favored by a touchdown or less. The Bears’ playoff loss to Philadelphia last season as a 6.5-point home favorites snapped a string of six straight wins and ATS covers as a home favorite of a touchdown or less.
However, when Mitch Trubisky and company are road favorites of seven points or less, Chicago is just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS over their last seven such contests. After finishing in the Top 10 in both, scoring and points allowed last season, the Bears are looking great as a home favorite heading into 2019!
Green Bay Packers
- Super Bowl LIV Odds: +2200
I have no idea why rebuilding the Green Bay Packers (6-9-1 ATS) is favored to win Super Bowl 54 over some conference rivals that made the playoffs last season (Seattle and Dallas, among others), but it Is what it is NFL betting faithful. While Aaron Rodgers and company went an identical 6-9-1 SU and ATS in 2018, the Packers are also an i9mpressive 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last six games as a favorite of a touchdown or less, including a 3-1 ATS mark a year ago.
However, when Green Bay is an underdog of seven points or less, the numbers tell a completely different story with the Packers going a winless 0-5-1 ATS last season in similar situations while also going 0-7-1 SU and 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine such games. From the looks of it, when the Packers are favored, they look like a good wager. When the Pack are underdogs, then recent history shows they’re almost incapable of winning or covering the chalk as they get set for their first season under new head coach Matt LaFleur.