Linebacker Favorite Super Bowl 54 Prop Bets
Super Bowl 54 will kick off in Miami this Sunday, and there is more on the line than just the spread and total in this game for bettors. The stopwatches will be out for the national anthem, ears will be perked to hear if Bill Vinovich announces heads or tails, and spectators will frequently be looking at the sideline for any clue regarding which color Gatorade could end up on the winning coach’s head.
While these kinds of prop bets all add to the excitement of the experience, they aren’t very predictable. At The Linebacker, we’re focusing on what we can confidently project: player and team props for Super Bowl 54.
We posted a similar article for the first time last year, and nearly nailed Tom Brady’s exact passing line. Our projections predicted he’d finish 23/34 for 263.4 yards, 1.61 touchdowns and 0.71 interceptions. Brady’s actual passing line? 21/35 for 262 yards, zero TDs and one INT.
This year we’re back and as confident as ever. Our NFL model posted a 63.2 percent success rate on plays against the spread and 54.4 percent on OVER/UNDER betting suggestions. With that said, let’s get into the props.
All prop lines and odds referenced are from Bovada.
Patrick Mahomes O/U 305.5 passing yards (OVER -130, UNDER EVEN)
Patrick Mahomes O/U 2.5 Passing TDs (OVER -125, UNDER -105)
Let’s start with last year’s MVP. Mahomes has lit the playoffs on fire thus far with 307.5 passing yards per game and eight passing touchdowns. His first two matchups were rather soft, however, as the Titans and Texans entered the playoffs having allowed the fourth- and seventh-most passing yards this season, respectively. Both were bottom-12 in passing touchdowns allowed during the regular season as well.
Where did Robert Saleh’s vaunted defense finish in those categories? First in passing yards allowed with just 190.9 yards per game, and T-13 with 23 passing TDs allowed. While Mahomes is clearly the most talented quarterback in this game and maybe in the NFL, we’re expecting him to fall short of both lines listed above. Our projections have him finishing 23/32 for 220.4 yards, along with 1.55 TDs and 0.28 INTs.
Our pick: UNDER 305.5 passing yards and UNDER 2.5 passing TDs
Kyle Juszczyk O/U 12.5 receiving yards (OVER -120, UNDER -110)
The 49ers fullback has been heralded all season for his blocking ability and importance in the running game, so it makes complete sense to target his receiving prop, right? While Juszczyk is nowhere near a fixture in Kyle Shanahan’s passing attack, he’s certainly a factor. Juszczyk hauled in 20 of his 24 targets this season for 239 yards, tallying 11.9 yards per reception.
We figure he’ll be involved once again in the Super Bowl after receiving zero touches in their first two playoff games, projecting the fullback to catch two passes for 19.8 yards. That puts him well over his line at Bovada, helping to make up for the -120 juice. With five catches of 15-plus yards on the season, Juszczyk could easily go OVER this prop with just one reception.
Our pick: OVER 12.5 receiving yards
Raheem Mostert O/U 79.5 rushing/receiving yards (OVER -130, UNDER EVEN)
The undrafted back from Purdue dominated the NFC championship game with 220 rushing yards and four touchdowns, and is the heavy favorite to receive the bulk of carries again this Sunday. While Mostert’s previous rushing line may never be repeated in a playoff game, there’s still plenty of value left on his props for Super Bowl 54.
You’ll also notice that we selected his total yardage prop rather than just rushing, which was deliberate on our part for multiple reasons. His rushing line is listed at 69.5, but carries -150 odds along with it. Therefore, the oddsmaker is tacking on just 10 yards to his total output, but giving it a much more favorable line of -130. We’re projecting Mostert to finish with one reception for 9.8 yards, but there’s a chance he could exceed that mark considerably. Kansas City allowed the most targets and receiving yards and the third-most receptions to opposing backs this season. They also couldn’t stop opposing backs on the ground, coughing up 4.8 yards per carry (27th).
Our model projects Mostert to finish with 80.7 yards rushing on 14 attempts, clearing his total yardage prop with rushing alone. Add in the one catch for 9.8 yards to his projection and we’re up above 90 total yards, giving us some wiggle room with the current 79.5 total yardage line.
Our pick: OVER 79.5 total rushing/receiving yards
San Francisco 49ers O/U 137.5 team rushing yards (OVER -110, UNDER -120)
This prop piggybacks a bit off our Raheem Mostert projections, but gains extra confidence once we add in the rest of the 49ers’ projected rushers. Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida and Jimmy Garoppolo project to carry the ball 18 times for 83.9 yards, bringing our total team projection to 164.6 rushing yards. There’s also a good chance Deebo Samuel gets a carry or two, considering he’s had at least one rushing attempt in his last seven games.
With our projection nearly 30 yards clear of the listed line and the odds in our favor at -110 compared to -120, we love the OVER on this one.
Our pick: OVER 137.5 team rushing yards for 49ers
If you like what you read and would be interested in accessing projections for every relevant player in Super Bowl 54, head over to The Linebacker. We have a special two-day, $10 pass for the Super Bowl. Not only do you receive every SB54 projection, but the pass grants you access to the full site, unlocking NBA, NCAAB and NHL picks as well. An incredible value that will only be offered over Super Bowl weekend.
NFL Draft Odds 2020 | Odds Shark
Like the rest of the sporting world, the status of the 2020 NFL Draft has…
Harry’s Winners & Losers From the NFL Offseason
In the midst of a world crisis the NFL world moved forward with trades and…
Las Vegas Expert Picks: Who Goes No. 2 in 2020 NFL Draft?
Vegas veteran Benjamin Eckstein, author of America’s Line, brings three decades of experience to make…
Odds on Peyton Manning and Al Michaels Joining Monday Night Football in 2020
ESPN’s Monday Night Football is the cream of the crop when it comes to NFL…
2020 NFL Scouting Combine Odds
The top NFL-hopeful prospects are set to descend upon Indianapolis, Indiana, for the 2020 NFL…
2020 NFL Offseason Odds | Odds Shark
The Vince Lombardi Trophy officially has a new home, as the Kansas City Chiefs won…