NBA Daily Discussion - 2/15/19 (Friday)

Pick of the Day – 7/2/19 (Tuesday)

Post **ONE** pick. No side picks in comments. You can provide a link to your other picks in the other daily threads.
**|** No parlays/teasers, please use the parlay/teaser thread for those. **|** Must be between -200 and +200 (1.5 and 3.0) **|** Provide a write up on why this is your Pick of the Day. If it is a system/model play please note relevant data such as ROI or record **and** provide an overview/description of your model or system. **|** You **must** note **time/sport/event** of your pick. **|** No top level comments without a pick. **|** Please report posts that do not meet the requirements. **|** [Basic template for posting](https://www.reddit.com/r/Sportsbooktest/comments/9y1fe9/potd_template/?) **| [Sportsbook List](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/wiki/sportsbooks) | [/r/sportsbook chat](https://discordapp.com/invite/0z5FKenGSBLokq4s) | [General Discussion/Questions Biweekly](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%22General+Discussion%2FQuestions+Biweekly%22&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) | [Futures Monthly](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%22Futures+Monthly%22&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) | [Models and Statistics Monthly](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%22models+and+statistics+monthly%22&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) | [Podcasts Monthly](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%22Podcasts+Monthly%22&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) |**

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12 Comments

  1. **POTD Record**: 16-9-0 **+18,50U**

    Last POTD: Portland Timbers ML vs FC Dallas 5U MAX BET **W**

    **POTD**: **Tunisia ML vs Mauritania @1.60 4U**

    20:00 GMT – Starts in approximately 21 hours

    **Reason: WHAT A WAY TO ENTER THIS NEW WEEK**, max bet cashing, I was desperate for that awful week to end. Now heading to Egypt, where Tunisia plays Mauritania in Suez. Tunisia is 2nd in the group with 2 points (two 1-1 draws against Mali and Angola) and Mauritania is 4th with 1 point (4-1 defeat against Mali, and a lucky 0-0 against Angola with an overturned Angolan goal in the 90th minute). Tunisia is one of the best teams in Africa (2nd African, 25th world according to FIFA rankings) and Mauritania is 103 in FIFA ranking, and is making its debut in AFCON. Tunisia can´t afford to lose points in this game, so I´m expecting them to win. Posted the tip now as odds should be lower tomorrow. BOL!

  2. POTD Record: 0-0-1 /-1u/

    POTD

    Wimbledon Tennis

    **Kvitova vs Jabeur**
    **Pick**: Jabeur do win 1st set
    **Stake: 5u (maxbet) @3.20**

    Kvitova is still injured and doctors said that she won’t be able to play. Anyway Petra said that she want to take a part in this match and just give it a try. She had only 2 trainings and 1 test-set before this game, while her Tunesian opponent has just great grass tournament behind her. Petra is injured since may and in the interview she said that’s she’s not feeling great but she’s strong enough to try get to the court and play. I just can’t see Kvitova winning against great Jabeur, not with Petras health issues. Why 1st set? Because if Kvitova will give up after 1st set (and she’s probably gonna play it and lose) we will gram (or I should say *steal) our money.*

    Sorry for mistakes, I’m not native but I’m trying to do my best!

    BOL

  3. 7/2/19

    Pick Record 204-143-37(W-L-P)

    WWWLWLWLLPLWWLWLPWWWWPWLWWWWPPWWLWWWLLWWWLWWPWLLWLWLWWWWWPWWWWLWWWWWLPLLWWWWLWLPWLWPLWLWLLLWWWWLWLLWWLPLWLWPWPWWLWWPLLLWWLWPLPLLLWWWWWLPWLLLWWLLWLWWLWLWWLLLLWLWWWWWLWLDLLWW

    Previous Pick

    • Sligo Rovers -1 W

    Today’s Pick

    • USA Women’s Soccer Over 2.5 @1.9

    USA is undoubtedly the best team in the world right now they lost only once in their last 30 matches and is on a 11 game win streak, 9 out of their last 10 games have been over 2.5 goals. The two of the best teams in terms of attacking , should be a plenty of goals.

    Women’s Soccer World Cup

    Time : 19.00

    note: I cannot guarantee a 100% pick but I can guarantee that I’m betting on my pick so, win or lose I’m in this with you and also remember to gamble responsibly.

    Telegram for multiple picks and live bets. I’m currently 112-84-14(W-L-P) live betting. https://t.me/onrsz

  4. ?POTD Record: 20-16?

    Form:WLWLWWWWLWLLWLLWLWWLWWLLLLLWWWWLLWWW

    Streak:W3

    Last Pick: Pirates Game Over 9.5 Runs -115 WIN

    I was wrong. I said play would cash around the 7th. It cashed in the 4th!!???

    Today’s Pick:

    MLB

    6:10 pm CDT

    NY Yankees @ NY Mets

    The Pick: Yankees Team Total Over 4.5 Runs -120

    Easiest pick in days. Really was surprised this line was 4.5. It will go up. The Yankees have scored over this total in 8 of their last 11 games. On the flipside, the Mets have given up over this total in all of their last 8 games. Their bullpen has been very bad giving up 26 Earned Runs in 23 innings. The Mets starter (Wheeler) is horrible against the Yankees and very inconsistent in general. I believe they score 5 runs off of Wheeler by the 5th. The only reason for me not taking the Yankees ML is cause of the Yankees starter (Paxton) and how he loves to let the other team score. But seriously this Team Total is a joke and gonna get demolished early. Hammer the fuck out it boys ???

  5. **POTD RECORD:** 5-2-1, +2.09u, 26.1% ROI (*all bets are 1u*)

    **WHEN THE HAZE CLEARED:** [6/27: Angels ML](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/c6az3b/pick_of_the_day_62819_friday/es7mlgw/), result: **ANGELIC WIN** ?

    **TODAY’S READING:** MLB, 9:10PM CST: San Francisco Giants vs. **San Diego Padres ML (-165)** ?

    A matchup of California teams has appeared on the horizon of the crystal ball for tonight’s POTD. Rookie southpaw Logan Allen (2-0, 1.38 ERA) will pitch for the host San Diego Padres, as they’ll welcome Jeff Samardzija (4-7, 4.52 ERA) and the San Francisco Giants to Petco Park on Monday night.

    These teams share a rare, but not altogether unexpected, trait of being statistically signifcantly better on offense away from their home ballparks. One might take that as a sign that the Giants are likely to be more successful in this series, but it’s more likely to simply be attributable to the fact that each of these teams play in extremely pitcher-friendly parks (Oracle Park is 27th, and Petco Park is dead last in the Runs Park Factor, per ESPN).

    The crystal ball is more focused on the pitching side of the this matchup, and the handedness of Logan Allen greatly appeals to the Friars’ fortunes tonight. San Fran is already not a very good offense, but is even worse against LHP (.628 OPS vs. .695 against RHP). Allen will be making only his 3rd career start, and his 2nd home start, but he was brilliant in his only outing at Petco Park thus far in his young career; he twirled a 3-hit gem against the visiting Milwaukee Brewers on June 18th.

    Samardzija, meanwhile, has struggled away from his home ballpark. In 2019, Shark has an ERA of 3.86 at home (.698 OPS allowed) against a gaudy 5.18 ERA on the road (.819 OPS allowed). He does have a fairly successful track record pitching in Petco Park, but he has quite literally never pitched in San Diego against a Padres team that finished the year above the .500 mark. This Friars lineup has quite a bit more punch than those of years past.

    San Diego gets the benefit of coming off a home weekend series against St. Louis, so they should be well-rested and prepared for an SF team that had to travel (albeit a short trip) from the Bay Area. The spirits love the Padres tonight in front of the home crowd.

    First pitch in about 5 hours. Click the [time link](https://countingdownto.com/?c=2535737) for an accurate countdown timer to gametime!

    *need more divinity? say abracadabra and conjure the [Twitter](https://twitter.com/CrystalCappers)*

  6. Hi Guys,

    For those of you that remember me – CanadianSportsNut – I was making most of my picks during the NFL season and will continue that in the 2019 NFL season. I also have been following the MLB closely and will be making some picks of the day until Football starts. My research consists of starting pitcher stats, bullpen, past 5-10 game stats, full batting lineups and hitting history, followed all by consensus picks to verify my research. As a result of lineups not coming out until later – I cannot make my picks until around 12-3PM EST, but I can assure you they are well thought out before making these picks for that reason. Please follow my twitter for more picks as I only post here when I have time to. Twitter:[https://twitter.com/CANSportsNut](https://twitter.com/CANSportsNut)

    **POTD Record:** 3-1-0

    **Profit:** +1.62 Units

    **Yesterday’s Pick:** **MLB – ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS ML @ SF GIANTS – 3 UNITS @ 1.62 – 10:10 PM EST W**

    **Today’s Pick: MLB – PIRATES ML VS CHICAGO CUBS – 3 UNITS @ 2.10 – 7:10 PM EST**

    **Explanation:** Back at it today guys with a solid underdog pick. The Pirates are a slight underdog at home against the cubs even though they just slapped them 18-5. I think it has to do with the Pirates overall record this season as they are not getting the credit they deserve. Their team’s batting average is 4th overall in the league with a .268 avg. This means they have trouble converting them into runs normally as they are 18th overall in the league for runs scored per game, but they have been very strong as of the last 3 weeks. Also Kyle Hendricks is an incredible home pitcher and quite the opposite when he’s away. Fortunately for us, he’s playing in Pittsburgh and he should get lit up pretty quickly in this game.

    If you would like my full picks and track me while I make it from $1,000 to $100,000 by Jan 1st, 2020 – please give my twitter a follow. I only post one POTD here to follow the rules, but there are more picks on Twitter:[https://twitter.com/CANSportsNut](https://twitter.com/CANSportsNut)

  7. Last POTD: Latvia ML❌

    **FIBA U19 world cup**

    France vs Serbia (6:45 PM)

    **POTD:** France -2.5 @1.94 **5u Max Bet**

    Shitty pick yesterday with Latvia, I should’ve picked the Brits again as they won big against Montenegro. Oh well, We bounce back today.

    Last day of the Group stage at the 2019 Fiba U19 world cup in Greece and today France and Serbia will go at it for the top spot in the Group.

    France has been dominant in their first two games as they are winning with an average margin of 43 points per game. They are doing it on both ends of the floor as they are one of the top team in both categories. I’ll give you some stats.

    2nd in Scoring with 105 PPG
    2nd in Assists with 20.5 PPG
    1st in 2-pt FGs percentage shooting 64.2 %
    1st in 3-pt FGs percentage shooting 40 %
    1st in Points allowed only surrenderring 62 PPG
    1st in Steals with 18 SPG

    The Serbian boys are also good but they barely won against Puerto rico.

    I expect france to win here by double digits hence the Max bet. Let’s get it before the line moves.

    Let’s goooooo!

  8. POTD Record W-L-P **(5-2-0)**

    Form: ✅✅❌✅✅❌✅

    Last POTD: Shanghai Shenhau v Guanghzou Evergrande, Away Win 1u, ✅

    ​

    Eurobasket Women 2019

    Italy v Russia, **Away Win -5.5 Handicap, 1u,** (odd:1.9) —-(19:30 GMT) ~3.5hrs from now ✅

    ​

    Reasons:

    1. Nothing complicated: Russia are ranked #11, Italy are ranked #31
    2. Their last h2h Russia won by 8 points
    3. Both teams played and beat Turkey last month. Russia won 67-52, Italy won 54-57.

  9. **POTD RECORD:** 2-2 (-3.3U)

    **POTD: India vs Bangladesh ~ Virat Kohli to Score 50 Runs YES @1.72 (10 Units)**

    **Previous POTD:** Cronulla Sharks vs Cantbury Bulldogs~ 3 Units on Cronulla Sharks Double Result (Cronulla Sharks to be winning at half time and full time) X

    **Start Time:** 6 Hours

    **Competition:** ICC Cricket World Cup

    **Reasoning:** Near even odds for the best in the world to do what he’s done 5 times in a row against the second worst side in the competition. Near even odds for Virat Kohli to score 50 against one of the worst batting sides in the competition. Near even odds for Virat Kohli to ensure his team goes through to the semi finals with a good innings. Sign me up with a 10 unit play. This is as easy money as it comes.

  10. **Pick of the Day Record: 1-0-0 (W-L-P)**

    **Streak: W1**

    **Last Pick:** Morocco ML vs. South Africa **W**

    **Pick of the Day:** Wimbledon Tennis – Tiafoe ML to upset Fognini. (-143 on BetOnline)

    10:30 EST or 10.5 hours from posting this.

    **Reason:** Fognini is not historically a great grass player and Tiafoe actually is a pretty good grass player. Furthermore, Tiafoe is probably a better player in long 5-set matches (should it come to that). In part, this is due to being essentially ten years younger. Despite Fognini holding the higher ATP ranking, I think the grass surface makes Tiafoe a good pick for this match.

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