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NCAABB Daily Discussion – 3/26/19 (Tuesday)

NCAABB Chat: https://discord.gg/hb74xKU **| [/r/sportsbook Rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/about/rules/) | [Sportsbook List](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/wiki/sportsbooks) | [/r/sportsbook chat](https://discordapp.com/invite/0z5FKenGSBLokq4s) | [General Discussion/Questions Biweekly](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%22General+Discussion%2FQuestions+Biweekly%22&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) | [Futures Monthly](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%22Futures+Monthly%22&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) | [Models and Statistics Monthly](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%22models+and+statistics+monthly%22&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) | [Podcasts Monthly](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%22Podcasts+Monthly%22&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) |**

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26 Comments

  1. **NCAAM 95-77-4 (+69.18u)**

    A rough 1-3-1 (-4.27u) Sunday along with my brother’s wedding and an overnight trip to the ER, but still doing pretty well overall!

    Actual NCAA Tourney bet(s) in bold

    *disclosure: units are 1% of my* **original** *bank balance*

    03/26/19:
    2u — Under 151 (-110) Creighton @ TCU
    10u — Under 169 (-105) Presbyterian @ Marshall
    5u — Under 157 (-110) Charleston Southern @ Hampton
    10u — Under 178 (-105) FIU @ Green Bay

    P.S. Yes I am aware of there being rule changes in the other tournaments, proceed at your own risk if you don’t understand them or agree with me (also proceed at your own risk with your unit-risk tolerance, *obviously*)

    Now that I’ve made it clear you are free to play as you choose, this is just me letting everyone know what I am *personally* betting. You obviously don’t have to blindly follow me.

    And again, these picks all exclusively use data from kenpom as they have all season long.

  2. CP is like a Vegas bachelor party. Fun, unpredictable, insane time, but at the end you leave empty handed second guessing life choices.

    Marshall -6

  3. Coming in with my obligatory Fade Reddit post…

    [https://kenpom.com/gameprep.php?g=6089](https://kenpom.com/gameprep.php?g=6089)

    ​

    Indiana is ranked 44 on Kenpom against Wichita St who is ranked 74. EDIT: More analysis – Wichita St can’t shoot the 3 and Indiana is pretty good against it. WS’s effective FG% is trash, and Indy’s is decent. Problem is, WS can’t throw it inside against the corn fed interior of Indiana.

    ​

    Indiana passes the eye test, and the Big 10 has been rolling in both NIT and in the main tourney.

    ​

    Most of Reddit is on Wichita St +4, which means I’ll buy Indiana down to -3 -130. Yes, buying points isn’t good in the long run but I’ll take whole numbers and being a shot down to push in these tourneys where it’s life or death for teams.

    ​

    But don’t listen to me, I’m just a guy riding a 78-44-4 run for +427.34 units of pure unadulterated bankroll abuse. Not saying the way I’m doing it is right, but I’m running hot and I think Indy crushes today.

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