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Arbitrage/Parlay/Challenge Daily - 2/13/19 (Wednesday)

NCAABB Daily Discussion – 2/12/19 (Tuesday)

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27 Comments

  1. **Richmond +11.5 (3 Units) / ML (6.30)(1 Unit) / u138 (2 Units)**

    VCU’s defense ranks 1st in the A10, in large part due to their ability to turn teams over (22% rate, 1st in A10). This strength will meet a strong counter as they face Richmond on Wednesday night. Richmond ranks 2nd in the conference and 17th nationally when it comes to offensive turnover rate, meaning they take care of the ball very well. In fact, Chris Mooney’s Richmond Spiders have ranked top 50 in turnover rate in 8 of the past 10 seasons, and never finished worse than 94 during that time span. Simply put, Chris Mooney places a high emphasis on good passing and that has shown consistently over the years.

    This is important for two main reasons. First and most obviously, Richmond’s ability to take care of the ball will allow them to not waste as many possessions as the average opponent and therefore score more points. But most people won’t recognize how much this ability to take care of the ball will help Richmond defensively. VCU plays the 29th fastest offense in the nation, which is in large part due to the fact that a lot of their possessions result in fastbreak points or quick transition looks. When VCU is slowed down into a halfcourt offense, we begin to see their offensive shortcomings emerge. VCU shoots just 29.3% from beyond the arc as a team, and no starter shoots over 32%. This limited spacing allows teams to pack it in on defense.

    I expect Richmond and their coach Chris Mooney to make this one a battle. VCU has played a very similar style throughout all of their coaching changes and Mooney has been very skilled at handling it. Despite the fact that VCU has went into every single game against Richmond as a higher ranked team, Richmond has managed to go 5-7 straight up against VCu since they joined the Atlantic 10, with just one loss coming by more than 11 points. For that reason, I’m hammering this 11.5 line, as well as the moneyline and the under.

    ​

    **Providence +10.5 (2 Units)**

    The Friars are another team that I believe are just getting too many points in a game that should be a slow contest. The total in this one is set at 135 which I believe is a very accurate line. A 10.5 point spread means that Villanova is estimated to win by a score of around 72-62. This is a scenario I find to be very likely, although I’d estimate the score to finish somewhere around 70-63. Providence does a great job of not allowing the three point shot (least amount of attempts given up in conference), which will force a Villanova team that is the 5th most reliant team in the nation on the trey to find new ways to score. In their first contest, Villanova shot just 43% of their shots from beyond the arc as opposed to their typical 53%. This resulted in them shooting worse and only winning by a score of 65-59. I expect a similar result here, with Providence’s experienced and athletic bunch making the Wildcats work for this win.

    ​

    **Clemson-Miami UNDER 126 (2 Units)**

    There is some serious steam coming from this total. It opened at around 130.5-132 depending on your book and has plummeted to this total despite the fact that the public is on the over. I had it marked as an early favorite when I looked last night and wish I would have locked it in early. Regardless, there’s still plenty to like about the 126 total. Miami has been playing a zone and slow tempo since losing a lot of their players and this should result in a low scoring game. Clemson is ill-equipped to handle a zone with their inability to shoot the trey and reliance on attacking the rim. Miami on the other hand, will struggle against a 2nd ranked ACC Clemson defense that has held teams to 37, 42, and 51 in recent contests as they seek to get hot and secure a tournament berth.

    ​

    **New Mexico -17 (2 Units) /u151.5 (1 Unit)**

    **Duquesne +1.5 (1 Unit) / u147.5 (2 Units)**

    **OK State +6 (1 Unit)**

    **UNI -1 (1 Unit)**

    **NC State -3 (1 Unit)**

    **East Carolina +8.5 (1 Unit)**

  2. Day of the fucking DOGS today man. Penn State, LSU, Drake, Maryland, Kansas State, St. Bonaventure, Western Michigan, Quinnipiac, Eastern Michigan, and Missouri all won straight up as underdogs.

  3. This sub was a fader’s paradise tonight. I got away lucky, losing 2 of 3. Fuckin’ Purdue musters 18 2nd half points & kills my over. Dudes were all over Michigan, Kentucky. A guy said he’d eat a cheese jersey if Akron scored 68. Another bet the farm on Texas. Going to post a 2nd half play on SDSU/CSU here & put myself in good shape for tomorrow.

  4. I remember when I was glad I got Duke -6.5 because “anything more than that and I’m not so sure they cover but this should be fine”

    Little did I know what the future had in store for me

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