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NCAABB Daily Discussion – 2/10/19 (Sunday)

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41 Comments

  1. **TCU -2 (2 Units) / over 149 (2 Units)**

    Is this the year Kansas is finally dethroned in the Big 12? This is the question that could be answered tonight as the Jayhawks hit the road to face TCU. While a loss would certainly not eliminate them from once again gaining a share of the Big 12 title, it would put them in a very tough situation to close out the season. However, with their backs against the wall tonight, I believe we see Kansas ultimately fall to TCU, in what I predict to be a high scoring affair.

    ​

    Jamie Dixon’s squad has yet to defeat Kansas on their home floor during his coaching tenure. They have lost by 6 points and 4 points in the last two seasons. The contests were both track meets with the totals coming in at 166 and 172 points. With their rotation dwindling, due to the absence of Vick, Azubuike, and most likely Garrett, I expect Kansas to preserve energy and run a zone for at least a portion of this game (especially if McCormack is in). You can also expect a lot of switching between the wings if they run man, as their athleticism gives them a lot of versatility. With this in mind, I think Dixon’s team will counter by running a fast-paced 4 out, 1 in offense. With three respectable shooters (Noi, Robinson, Bane), as well as a guy who will shoot the three in JD Miller, TCU has the ingredients to wear down this KU defense. Jamie Dixon is a mastermind when it comes to on-ball and off-ball screening and this is shown in his team’s consistent ranking inside the top 10 of A/FGM. With Kansas depleted, I expect these screens to come fast and often, and I think Bill Self ends up pulling his hair out with all of the assists his team allows tonight (220th nationally in that defense category). TCU will get a surprisingly big contribution from JD Miller tonight, and if not, then I think the poison will be another great shooting performance from the Horned Frogs. Key numbers to note are that Kansas allows the third most three point attempts in the big 12 and allow teams to shoot 36.5% from beyond the arc.

    As for their defense, I think TCU has enough of a bend don’t break defensive performance to get the job done tonight. While their 2pt defense is the worst in the big 12, I think at home, this may be something they will be willing to give up. Kansas has had a noticeably tough time taking care of the ball on the road this year, and feeding Lawson will come at a cost. Kansas’s 20% turnover rate in conference play will be seen tonight. I think Lawson may get another 25 or 30, but Miller and Samuel are legit big bodies who he will have to earn it against.

    As for the over, I think KU’s offensive style has evolved to either a quick feed into the post to Lawson or one on-ball screen drive and kick options. Their inexperience has shown and their first ranked tempo in the Big 12 is not a good sign in general basketball terms. However, for an over, I think it does bode well. Once again, I think TCU comes out in blitz mode on the offensive end, running a bevy of screens to test this inexperienced bunch. I think TCU will shred the zone too for Kansas to stay in it, so instead, we’ll see man to man from a team that plays very few guys.

    All in all, think TCU has the formula to get a big home win over Kansas for Jamie Dixon and their seniors.

  2. Live bet Northwestern money line for +145 when they were up 6. Was feeling like a goddamn legend for a bit until I saw Northwestern look like a bunch of retards when confronted with the full court press. That ridiculous NBA-range 3 to seal it is too fucking fitting.

  3. 🚨 🚨 🚨 MAX BET ALERT 🚨 🚨 🚨

    πŸ”¨πŸ”¨πŸ”¨ Standford/Oregon u136 – 6uπŸ”¨πŸ”¨πŸ”¨

    Stanford is playing great defense lately and Oregon has struggled on offense lately and against better defenses in general – especially since the injury to Bol Bol (Manut’s Son).

    Stanford has won 3 in a row but they struggle against top 40 defense teams and they might actually win this game Outright but the Under has more value since Oregon will come out with a bit of defensive mind set after 91 points and losing by 31 points to Stanford on the road last year. BOL to all who tail.

    Game starts at 5PM PST

  4. Consensus results for those interested: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jju56lqExGcStsSeFOd9zWgBGBy6vb5c7xysBUIre_k/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jju56lqExGcStsSeFOd9zWgBGBy6vb5c7xysBUIre_k/edit?usp=sharing)

    ​

    Yesterday’s favorites:

    **Washington Huskies** L

    **Clemson Tigers** W

    **Georgetown Hoyas** L

    **Temple Owls** L

    **Gonzaga Bulldogs** W

    **Tennessee Volunteers** W

    **LSU Tigers** W

    **Arkansas Razorbacks** L

    **Wisconsin Badgers** L

    ​

    The record for favorites: **34-54**

    ​

    Tonight’s consensus:

    **Memphis Tigers**-Connecticut Huskies (7-3)

    **South Florida Bulls**-East Carolina Pirates (3-0)

    Valparaiso Crusaders-**Loyola Chicago Ramblers** (0-3)

    ​

    For many of the games today opinions are either split or pretty close:

    Holy Cross Crusaders – Lafayette Leopards (1-1)

    Houston Cougars-Cincinnati Bearcats (3-4)

    Southern Methodist University Mustangs-UCF Knights (3-5)

    Ohio State Buckeyes – Indiana Hoosiers (4-6)

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