Bellator 216: MVP vs Daley (2/16/19)

NBA Daily Discussion – 3/28/19 (Thursday)

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  1. **NBA: +83.19u** (89-75-4)


    **Magic+9 and 76ers-3.5** (2.5u to win 2.35u)


    ^(Disclaimer: “and” between two picks indicates a parlay/teaser. Odds are subjected to change between post and tip-off. As always, if a pick refers to 1Q, 1H, … then it’s indicated explicitly else it’s FT. GL fam.)

  2. Record: 70-53-3

    Hit 2-0 yesterday, let’s keep it fucking rolling.

    Tonight’s play:
    76ers -7

    Possibly more to come

    Venmo if ya want to buy me a beer:


  3. **Last Post Recap: Singles** **(*****3-8, -8.62U*****)** **Parlay(1-1*, +15.2*U) BBDLS** (*0-2, -2U)*

    **Recap**: This was a rather interesting day with something I have never considered before to make note of for the future. So, I am rather new to sports betting and with each sport there are little things you need to learn that will help you make better decisions as time goes on. Yesterday… I felt very good about POR crushing it. b/c of that I keyed on the two players I thought would get the most usage and have the best opportunity of covering prop spreads. POR did crush it, but what I didnt consider is that the coach would pull all the starters for rest after 20 mins of play. POR played with their bench for the second half of the game and it killed our props in that one. Anyway, good note for the future, be wary of player props in potential blowouts (unless you are taking the underdog teams players that would have the chance to play from behind, continuously trying to score.) So anyway, that pretty much killed our singles yesterday. Our parlays went good, going 1-2 with one of the losses getting refunded for going 3-4. Its getting closer and closer to the end of the season, I dont know about you guys, but I am so ready to hit a BBDLS for over 100-1. A few more games today than yesterday, lets see what we can find!


    **ORL/DET:** ORL kept it rolling with their 6th straight win in MIA. DET off 3 straight losses. My stat project this one at -3/4 and Vegas is the same. With ORL recent history you would think the line would adjust slightly in their favor but the 0 movement is probably due to the fact that DET is 9-0 in its last 9 at home. The O/U is super low as it should be. Id be surprised if both teams break 100 unless this goes into OT. This is one of those super close spots where anyone can win and 3.5 is a lot for a game projected 206…Ill probably stay away from a side.

    **BK/PHL:** BK off a tough double OT loss to POR. PHL off a horrible offensive showing failing to put up 100. BK was getting dominated by Nursik before he went down. Im gonna look at JE to do the same, hopefully without going down.

    **DAL/MIA:** DAL riding a decent week with an upset over GS and a close loss to the kings. MIA has had an up a down week going 2-2. I really like MIA to get back on track with a win here but 7.5 is a decent amount of points in a low projected total.

    **TOR/NY:** TOR is looking strong coming into the playoffs. NY is looking strong going into the draft lottery. Love TOR to keep rolling but again, 11.5 is a high number and KL is taking a day of rest for TOR.

    **LAC/MIL:** The LAC are one of the hotter teams in the NBA this month going 11-1. MIL are 3-0 since the return of the GF. This is my favorite game of the day but Im not sure if there is a side to sweat. I realllly like LA but Vegas has pushed the spread in MIL favor. I know MIL is a top team and gets attention just because they win…but LA is a huge market and the clippers should be getting visibility there. I may stay away from singles in this one as I think MIL could win a blowout, or LA could win an upset.

    **SAC/NO:** SAC is 3-1 over the last week but went 1-1 OTR. NO only played 2 games last week and lost both. Something is weird about this one. Part of me kinda likes NO to come out big and win this one. This is probably a good game to look at some props in.

    **DEN/HOU:** DEN 3-1 in the last week and looks pretty playoff ready. HOU is 2-1 in the last week and 2-2 in their last 4. I have this at 3 so the slight vegas adjustment is favoring HOU. However, “game to go into OT” is only +1300…same as it is for the ORL/DET game, even though there is almost a 3 point differential in the game spreads. What does this mean?

    **CLE/SA:** CLE riding 3 straight losses since the MIL upset. SA was on a winning streak this month until last week going 1-3 last week. SA plays way better at home so I would look for them to get back on track here pretty easily.

    **Today’s Singles (Overall Total: 201-190-2, +55.63U)**

    * All Picks posted in r/CreateYoureReality


    **Thanks for reading, good luck!**

  4. **Record: 29-28-1**
    **Parlay Record: 2-4 +73.26u**

    No money made, no money lost but you’d hope for better. Tiny slate tonight but I’m confident on the picks. All bets are 10u unless otherwise stated.

    **1u = 1$**

    **Yesterday’s Picks:**

    Thunder -6 ✅ **WIN +10u**

    Trail Blazers/Bulls O217.5 ? **LOSS -11u**

    Warriors -10.5 ✅ **WIN +10u**

    Lakers +15 **PUSH**

    Lakers ML +1000 ? **LOSS -10u**

    **Today’s Picks:**

    Pistons -3.5

    Heat -7

  5. Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers – Largest Lead of Game: **Under 18.5 -115**


    This will be a playoff atmosphere as the Sixers are the three seed and the Nets are the six seed in the eastern conference. In the last three games, the Sixers have averaged 6.3 points as their largest lead and the Nets 7.3 points. I feel like this game will be closely contested throughout and the lead will change a fair bit throughout.

  6. Detroit -1 1Q — Detroit coming off a 3L road trip, fighting for a higher seed with ORL. I see them coming out hot at home tonight. Magic aren’t a relatively good team on the road either


  7. Record: 5-2-1

    Yesterdays picks:

    IND@OKC – Steven Adams o11.5 Points-W

    WSH@PHX – 1stQrt WSH-L

    LAL@UTA – Rudy Gobert o29.5 PTS + REB-W

    Today’s Picks:

    ORL@DET – Nikola Vucevic o21.5 Points

    BKN@PHI – Brooklyn Nets +7.5 points

    NOP@SAC – Sacramento -4.5 points

  8. I think this is interesting to keep track/publicly brag/behumiliated. My strategy is just to keep track of injury news and make moves at big news. My strategy relies on vegas being correct 99% of the time and that unless a big news breaks, it’s pointless to make a bet

    Day 4: Record: 11-11 -0.4U


    It seems like my single bet for the under on the game didn’t go through so i got lucky on that.

    GSW -9.5 0.5U **W**

    POR -7 0.5U **W**

    Parlay all GSW -9.5, POR -7, PORvsCHI u215 0.25U **L**

    Today’s Picks:

    (Offensive rating+/-, defensive rating +/-)

    **MIL -9** 0.5U Beverly is out and he’s actually a positive on offense and defense(+1.0, +0.9) and his backups, Shai is a negative on both ends (-0.9, -0.5) and Landry is a positive on offense, but negative on defense (+1.3, -1.8). Fivethirtyeight’s model has the game at MIL -13.

    **Dallas +7** 0.75U Josh Richardson plays almost the entire game for the heat and was ruled out early today. He’s a postiive on both ends and they’re missing McGruder and Winslow so they’ll be forced to go big with James Johnson or go small with Wade and Waiters at SF. Wade(-0.9, -1.3), Waiters (-0.6, -1.0), Johnson(-1.3, +1.0), and Jones Jr(-1.0, 0.0). After the Richardson injury, the Heat spread has fallen to Heat-3.

    **MIA under 108.5** 0.5U This is in result of Richardson being out. They replace Richardson with James Johnson and Derrick Jones who are both negatives on offense.

    **Parlay Dallas+7 and MIL -9** 0.5U

  9. Reddit record: 16-8-1 +8.80U


    *Previous pick: 3/26 — ATL/NOP o241.5 (W +1.0U) — Didn’t like anything too much on yesterday’s slate*

    **8:00 PM ET**

    **DENVER/HOUSTON UNDER 216.5 (-110)**

    *Risking 1.1U to Win 1.0U*

    * Line has dropped to 216.5 from 218.5, with bets % being essentially split.

    * This is a matchup between the 2nd & 4th best teams in the West. DEN is a 0.5 game back from GSW and HOU is 0.5 game back from 3rd place POR. I see these two teams defenses being stingier given that we’re entering the home stretch toward the playoffs and standing positioning will be crucial, especially in the competitive Western Conference.

    * The Under is 9-1 in DEN last 10 Western Conference games.

    * The Under is 8-1 in HOU last 9 Western Conference games.

    * The Under is 19-7 in DEN last 26 overall games.

    * The Under is 16-5-1 in HOU last 22 overall games.

    * The Under is 8-2 in both teams last 10 games.

    * The Under is 13-23 in DEN road games.

    * The Under is 22-14 (61.11%) when HOU is playing an above .500 team.

    Best of luck to those brave enough to tail.

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