Arbitrage/Parlay/Challenge Daily - 2/13/19 (Wednesday)

MLB Daily Discussion – 5/13/19 (Monday)

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  1. **Reminder:** Use the **Brag and Bitch Daily** for heavy bitching about personal bets especially before games are finished. Constructive live/post game discussion is encouraged.

  2. **Run Line Value Plays: 9-15, +32.65u, 30.25% ROI**

    My model looks at teams propensities to cover (and give up) -1.5, -2.5, and -3.5 run lines and then if I believe they are getting a better line than they should, I bet it relative to the amount of value I believe there is. Average bet is 4.5u at +167 so adjust accordingly if tailing. Follow my twitter for faster updates (@BarDownPLs).

    **Today’s Picks:**

    * Phillies -1.5 at +130, 3.7u to win 4.8u
    * Phillies -2.5 at +210, 4.5u to win 9.5u
    * Twins -2.5 at +220, 3.8u to win 8.4u


  3. **MLB Underdogs**

    Spending the season betting only on teams with better than +150 odds. Baseball underdogs have the best chance to beat better teams on any given day based on the nature of the sport, so by finding good value picks, hoping to end the season with a record of around .500 but with a nice return on units due to better odds

    **Record: 21-33, +5.85 U**

    **Previous Pick:**

    * Detroit Tigers ML +170**, L**
    * Well folks, we are in an absolute tailspin. That makes 6 losses in a row

    **Today’s Pick:**

    * Pittsburgh Pirates ML +155

  4. **92-83** on MLB last season and went **up 34.31 units**

    **5-3** on MLB this season **up 8.24 units** 

    **Tigers** at +140 for 2 units.

    **Yankees/Orioles over 8.5** at -110 for 2 unit.

  5. **MLB 2019 Record 69-69 -.59U All bets are risking x units @ x odds-**

    Yesterday’s Picks: 1-3 -2.97U

    Angels 2U @ -160 L

    White Sox 1U @ +103 W

    Royals 1U @ +100 L

    Padres 1U @ +105 L


    Today’s Picks:

    Mariners 2U @ -120

    Tigers +1.5 1U @ -115

    Brewers 1U @ + 142

    Follow me on Twitter @ [Bambo’s Picks](

  6. I’ve been taking taking the under when Bieber is on the mound for the Indians and it’s gone pretty well. Dating back to March 19, I’m only seeing two starts where the total has gone over. If you go back another start, you’ll find a third over because of an Indians grand salami. A bit biased as I’m a Tribe fan, but the kid is pretty legitimate. The line is at 8.5 runs today, while the under is listed +105 for me. Hope the wheels don’t fall off today if you tail!

  7. 2019 MLB 1stHalfs Record: (35 – 18 – 4) +27.775 units


    **Play #1**: MLB 1st5inn Indians -0.5 runs (-125 or better) | Risk: 3.75 to win 3.00

    Shane Bieber is a very good road starter, maybe the best ever (9-0 in his career). He has 6 quality starts this year, but win-less in his last 4 outings. The Indians have been struggling something fierce, and I believe will break out in a big way tonight against Lopez, a pitcher they just saw last week that has given up 9 earned runs in his last 11 innings.


    **Play #2**: MLB 1st5inn Orioles/Yankees Over 4.5 (-125) | Risk: 2.50 to win 2.00

    Easy pickin’s here as the game’s over/under opened correctly around 9.5 runs and has been beaten down to 8.5, and getting a win at 5 runs instead of a push for the 1st 5. Yankees have proven they are a force even with injuries, and Hess gives up 1.2 home runs every time through the lineup when facing Yankees probables.


    2019 NCAABasketball 1stHalfs Record: (33 – 23 – 2) (+25.0 units <=> +$2,500 for $100 bettors)

  8. Hot vs. Cold



    66.67% ROI

    9 wins in a row, let’s go!

    I have 3 plays today. First play is Detroit over Houston. Tigers return home after dropping 3 in a row and Houston comes in scorching with 5 wins in a row. Tigers are due for a win and Houston is due for a loss. Boyd > Peacock, so it seems like this is the perfect game to jump on for Detroit.

    Second play is Cleveland over Chicago. I’m not a White Sox believer, and they’ve won 2 straight. Pitching matchup favors Cleveland as well.

    Third play is Arizona over Pittsburgh. Dbacks are on a 3 game losing streak and face a Pirates team on a 3 game win streak. Arizona is too good to lose 4 in a row, and Pittsburgh is playing their first game in Mountain time. First pitch is at 9:40 Pittsburgh time. On top of that the pitching matchup favors Arizona.

    Detroit ML: 1u to win 1.4
    Cleveland ML: 1.1u to win .7u
    Arizona ML: 1u to win .6u

    Edit: I made a mistake. Detroit has not lost 3 straight.

  9. Berrios has a 5+ ERA against the Angels.

    LAA only strikes out a league low 15.5% of the time capping the ceiling for Berrios.

    Angels at home carry a wRC+ of a whopping 124.6 vs. only 63.1 on the road.

    You guys still wondering why the line is moving toward LAA even though most of the bets are on Twins?
    It opened at -145 and its at -134 ATM with 81% on the ML Twins.

    It’s a no-bet or an LAA bet for me.

  10. **Model Overall Results**: 43-31(+16.22 units) ROI: +10.6%

    5/12 Results 2-1 +0.64 units

    Rockies -105 2 units **W**

    A’s -115 2 units **L**

    Dodgers -135 1 unit **W**


    Yankees -210 2 units

    Twins -129 2 units

    Mariners -114 1 unit

  11. Series Strategy. Choose a series and all they need to do is win 1 game. If they lose then you bet your losses + 1 additional unit and so on. You stop once they win. A few rules I go by:
    1. Only bet favorites
    2. If the team you choose for the series ends up being an underdog bet +1.5
    3. Never bet on a 2 game series.
    4. Before you comment. Yes I know it’s a chase system

    Strategy record: 27-0 (+27.6 units)

    Game record: 27-13 (27.21% ROI)

    Last picks:Phillies -132 to win 2.5 units

    Picks: Astros -175 | Twins -152

    BOL to all !
    Follow me on Twitter @bashhdd and Twitch @SirDongy

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