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esports Daily Discussion – 2/12/19 (Tuesday)

esports Chat: https://discord.gg/0z5FKenGSBMZgWfT **| [/r/sportsbook Rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/about/rules/) | [Sportsbook List](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/wiki/sportsbooks) | [/r/sportsbook chat](https://discordapp.com/invite/0z5FKenGSBLokq4s) | [General Discussion/Questions Biweekly](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%22General+Discussion%2FQuestions+Biweekly%22&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) | [Futures Monthly](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%22Futures+Monthly%22&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) | [Models and Statistics Monthly](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%22models+and+statistics+monthly%22&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) | [Podcasts Monthly](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%22Podcasts+Monthly%22&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) |**

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7 Comments

  1. Any SC2 fans in the house? I’ve been playing/watching for years, new to betting.

    UPDATE – We did it boys! Map score was correct, Scarlett and herO actually met again in the decider match of this group and the score was again a 2-1 to herO. Haven’t watched the games yet and might update the post when I do, but likely no one cares.

    Overall Record (so far) 1-1

    At 6:30pm KST time, GSL Season 1 2019 Group E will take place. Players in the group are Maru (T), Ragnarok (Z), Scarlett (Z), and herO (P).

    The pick: 1-2 map score, Scarlett vs herO +225

    Reasons: Scarlett’s ZvP is very good, with a 67% win rate in recent ZvP matches. However, herO’s PvZ is better with a 78% win rate in recent PvZ matches, so I expect him to win the match, but I’m betting the 1-2 map score because I think at +225 its a better value than taking herO on the moneyline at -265, and I think Scarlett will take a game despite losing the series.

    herO’s strategies typically involve aggressive early and mid-game attacks with things like glaive adepts and phoenix. Scarlett has good defense and (I think) an advantage in the late game. So I expect this series to go 3 games, with herO trying aggressive strategies and Scarlett trying to defend. One of these games makes it into late game, which Scarlett wins. The other two games are won by herO early/mid-game.

    The other series on the day (Maru vs Ragnarok) is not bettable in my opinion. Ragnarok stands little-to-no chance against Maru and the odds (-1600) reflect that. Ragnarok is unlikely to take a map off Maru, but there is no value, even in betting Maru to win 2-0.

    Holla if there are other SC2 fans out there, give me your thoughts and hopefully I can make some picks for you guys!

  2. **CoD OVERALL RECORD: 1-1 (+1 Units)(+1U yesterday)**

    Solid first day as we manage to get a nice 1U profit off of a Gen.G comeback! Let’s continue that into the full day today.

    ***4U Midnight -1.5 (-151)***

    ***2U Midnight ML (-360)***

    ***2U Midnight -2.5 (+200)***

    ***4U Gen. G ML (-179)***

    ***2U Gen. G 3-2 (+315)***

    ***4U Red Reserve ML (+143)***

    ***4U Red Reserve +1.5 (-142)***

    ***2U Red Reserve 3-0 (+750)***

    All odds are from Nitrogen, BetOnline, Bovada, BookMaker, 5Dimes, or Pinnacle.

  3. Hey guys!

    One of our top CS:GO cappers kicks off Katowice with his Challenger Stage predictions and analysis. Veryinternet takes us through an in-depth look at all 16 squads and how they stack up.

    [Check it out here!](https://www.plusevsports.com/post/iem-katowice-major-2019-main-qualifier-betting-predictions)

    Stay tuned for picks and more write-ups soon!

    As always, stay disciplined and BOL☘️

    -Andy

    [Twitter](http://www.twitter.com/plusev_azndy) | [Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/plusev_sports) | [www.plusEVsports.com](http://www.plusevsports.com)

  4. **Record: 1-1 (everything is in profile history)**

    ​

    So yesterday Windigo turned up, which on my part should have been considered. In hindsight 1.3 odds for AVANGAR was very skewed, my bad guys. However, NoChance did as expected and won out against x6tence 2-0.

    ​

    NoChance vs. DreamEaters | BO3 |

    NoChance are on a hot streak recently, not counting their AVANGAR blowout, and seem to be doing very well against their fellow tier 3 teams. One could argue that NoChance are a step above DreamEaters in this match due to DreamEaters facing mostly lesser opponents (than NoChance have), but they’ve still got a decent roster actually. With DreamEaters having a few good maps, if they are lucky in the veto and get to play NoChance on either Dust 2 or Inferno I would definitely say they have a good chance at taking a map. The rest of the map pool definitely favors NoChance as they have decent results on most of them.

    ​

    My bet: **DreamEaters +1.5 @1.8.** Go for the 1.5 handicap **IF** Dust 2 or Inferno are being played.

    ​

    x6tence Galaxy vs. Red Reserver | BO3 |

    This one is quite interesting. We have a nex x6tence member in the form of an ex-Red Reserve player freddieb. On the other hand we have the two super-stand-ins in the form of HS and ScreaM. First off, RR definitely have the firepower advantage here. However, I don’t want to forget the fact that x6tence are an established team with only their support player being exchanged for freddieb, who is a definite upgrade. The map pool favors x6tence, as Train most likely will be banned. This realistically leaves Cache and Dust 2 to be picked by Red Reserve. I won’t go too far into the veto as we basically have x6tence vs. a mix at this point. Recently x6tence have been playing very poorly, and I have no clue as to why, but this could be a turning point for them. Most bookies place RR’s odds at 1.6-1.7 but in this case I will place a small bet on x6tence, due to the map pool favoring them and RR just being a mix.

    ​

    My bet: **x6tence Galaxy ML @2.** This is a bit risky, so bet accordingly. I might have some picks later on if anyone’s interested just DM me. πŸ™‚

  5. Bankroll Management time lets go. Will be posting most days now. Picks will now be in terms of units, and for the purpose of this a unit is 1% of your bankroll. At every 50u we will change our unit to an amount more reflect our units.

    **Units Starting: 100u**

    **Current Units: 100u**

    2/12/19

    * Valiance – expert – Handicap – Valiance -5.5 = 6.5u to win 5.52u
    * Virtus.pro – Unicorns of Love – Match Winner – Unicorns of Love Odds = 6u to win 8u
    * Tricked – pro100 – Match Winner – Tricked = 7u to win 6.3u
    * Tricked – pro100 – Map Advantage – Tricked -1.5 = 2u to win 5.14u
    * Windigo – NoChance – Correct score – 1:2 = 1.5u to win 4.07u
    * Havu Map 2 Ml (vs. Chaos) = 7u to win 3.22u
    * Havu Ml to win match = 2.5u to win 4.55u

  6. **LoL OVERALL RECORD: 595-753 (+56.98 Units)(+18.69U yesterday)**

    Profitable day as the minor leagues work out perfectly! Hopefully we can get that unit total up again as we have a few European Academy leagues as well as the ECS.

    Let’s get it back today!

    *LCK+KeSPA (104-114)(+71.19U)(0U yesterday)*

    *LPL+NEST+Demacia Cup (101-146)(-31.93U)(0U yesterday)*

    *LMS (23-33)(-16.35U)(0U yesterday)*

    *Mixed League Parlay(s) (9-14)(-7.47U)(0U yesterday)*

    **LCS (46-59)(-21.23U)(0U yesterday)**

    **LEC (55-60)(+19.97U)(0U yesterday)**

    **NA Academy (26-34)(-36.77U)(0U yesterday)**

    **TCL (23-25)(+9.39U)(0U yesterday)**

    **CBLOL + Superliga (44-47)(+52.54U)(+3U yesterday)**

    **Other Leagues (65-75)(+11.17U)(+15.69U yesterday)**

    ***2.5U ahq Fighter M1 ML (+323)***

    ***2.5U ahq Fighter M2 ML (+361)***

    ***5U ahq Fighter +1.5 (+215)***

    ***1U Fish Dive Map 1 ML (+656)***

    ***1U Fish Dive Map 2 ML (+656)***

    ***5U Fish Dive +.5 Maps (+610)***

    ***5U GO/MSF Premier O24.5 Kills (-130)***

    ***5U Rogue.A/EPC U23.5 Kills (-123)***

    ***3U Against all Authority ML (-207)***

    ***5U Vit.B/LDLC U22.5 Kills (-112)***

    ***5U Falkol/Pain U22.5 Kills (-109)***

    ***3U Kino/Havan U23.5 Kills (-121)***

    *WORLDS 2018 (33-65)(+16.71U)(0U yesterday)*

    *ALL STARS (19-26)(+22.92U)(0U yesterday)*

    *VCS (13-16)(-3.15U)(0U yesterday)*

    **OPL (13-20)(-37.55U)(0U yesterday)**

    **LJL (13-18)(-17.26U)(0U yesterday)**

    **LAN (15-13)(+13.07U)(0U yesterday)**

    All odds are from Nitrogen, BetOnline, Bovada, BookMaker, 5Dimes, or Pinnacle.

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